Modelling Mediterranean landscape succession-disturbance dynamics: A landscape fire-succession model

Millington, James D.A.; Wainwright, John; Perry, George L.; Calcerrada, Raúl Romero; Malamud, Bruce D.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.03.013

Cited by 62 publications

(37 citation statements)

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“…Wildfires are considered as one of the major forces shaping Mediterranean landscape and controlling vegetation communities' succession and structure (Serra et al, 2008;Millington et al, 2009). Wildfires also contribute to the development of the pattern of vegetation succession, the rate of which largely depends on the prevailing plant traits (Mouillot et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness

Xystrakis

Kallimanis

Dimopoulos

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Historical fire records and meteorological observations spanning over one century were assembled in a database to collect long-term fire and weather data in Greece. Positive/negative events of fire occurrence on an annual basis were considered as the years where the annual values of the examined parameters were above (positive values) or below (negative values) the 95 % confidence limits around the trend line of the corresponding parameter. To analyse the association of positive/negative events of fire occurrence with meteorological extremes, we proceeded with a cross-tabulation analysis based on a Monte Carlo randomization.Positive/negative values of total annual precipitation were randomly associated with the corresponding values of burned areas, and significant associations were observed for seasonal precipitation totals (spring and fire season). Fire season precipitation is the dominant factor coinciding with negative values of area burned, while years with high spring precipitation coincide with years with large areas burned. These results demonstrate the dual role of precipitation in controlling a fire's extent through fuel build-up and dryness. Additionally, there is a clear outperformance of precipitation-related variables compared with temperature-related weather revealing that, at least in Greece, total area burned at the national scale is controlled by precipitation totals rather than air temperature.This analysis improves our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of fire regimes and provides valuable information concerning the development of models relating fire activity to weather parameters, which are essential when facing a changing climate that may be associated with shifts in various aspects of the typical fire regimes of ecosystems. Our results may allow fire managers to more easily incorporate the effect of extreme weather conditions into longterm planning strategies. They contribute to the exploration of fire-climate relationships and may become more important if climate change scenarios are used to predict the occurrence of future extreme weather taking into consideration that climate change is discussed on the basis of changes of extremes rather than changes in means.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness

Xystrakis

Kallimanis

Dimopoulos

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Without being exhaustive,and referringonly to those more recent studies, we cite works on fires, above all, in North America (Chen 2007;Yang et al2008;Gedalof 2011;Miranda et al 2011;Gralewitz et al 2012), but also in the Mediterranean region (Millington et al 2009;Romero-Calcerrada et al 2010), including Catalonia Serra et al2012), as well as in Asia (Liu et al 2012) and Oceania (O"Donnell 2011).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling wildfire occurrence: the case of Catalonia, 1994–2008

et al. 2013

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“…Further details about SPA 56 and recent LUCC in the area can be found in RomeroCalcerrada and Perry (2004) and Millington et al (2007). SPASIMv1 is composed of a Landscape Fire Succession Model (LFSM -described in more detail by Millington et al, 2009), and an ABM of agricultural land-use decision-making (described in more detail by Millington et al, 2008) (Figure 2). …”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mind, the gap in landscape‐evolution modelling

Wainwright¹,

Millington²

2010

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Despite an increasing recognition that human activity is currently the dominant force modifying landscapes, and that this activity has been increasing through the Holocene, there has been little integrative work to evaluate human interactions with geomorphic processes. We argue that agent-based models (ABMs) are a useful tool for overcoming the limitations of existing, highly empirical approaches. In particular, they allow the integration of decision-making into process-based models and provide a heuristic way of evaluating the compatibility of knowledge gained from a wide range of sources, both within and outwith the discipline of geomorphology. The application of ABMs to geomorphology is demonstrated from two different perspectives. The SPASIMv1 (Special Protection Area SIMulator version 1) model is used to evaluate the potential impacts of land-use changeparticularly in relation to wildfi re and subsequent soil conditions, runoff and erosion -over a decadal timescale from the present day to the mid-twenty-fi rst century. It focuses on the representation of farmers with traditional versus commercial perspectives in central Spain, and highlights the importance of land-tenure structure and historical contingencies of individuals' decision-making. CYBEROSION, however, considers changes in erosion and deposition over the scale of at least centuries. It represents both wild and domesticated animals and humans as model agents, and investigates the interactions of them in the context of early agriculturalists in southern France in a prehistoric context. We evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the ABM approach, and consider some of the major challenges. These challenges include potential process-scale mismatches, differences in perspective between investigators from different disciplines, and issues regarding model evaluation, analysis and interpretation. If the challenges can be overcome, this fully integrated approach will provide geomorphology a means to conceptualize soundly the study of humanlandscape interactions by bridging the gap between social and physical approaches.

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Modelling Mediterranean landscape succession-disturbance dynamics: A landscape fire-succession model

Cited by 62 publications

References 64 publications

Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness

Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness

Spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox processes for modelling wildfire occurrence: the case of Catalonia, 1994–2008

Mind, the gap in landscape‐evolution modelling

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