Modelling long-term cation supply in acidified forest stands

Wärfvinge, Per; Falkengren‐Grerup, Ursula; Sverdrup, Harald; Andersen, Bent

doi:10.1016/0269-7491(93)90041-l

Cited by 108 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Others such as SMART (Posch et al, 1993) and SAFE (Warfvinge et al, 1993) are in many respects similar; model comparisons show strengths and weaknesses of various models (Warfvinge et al, 1992;Tiktak and van Grinsven, 1995). Uncertainties from data aggregation, parameter inputs and model structure have also been addressed (Barkman and Alveteg, 2001;Larssen et al, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of models such as SMART (Posch et al, 1993) and SAFE (Warfvinge et al, 1993) have been developed to simulate acidification responses. While the models may vary in details of their application (different spatial and temporal scales and resolution), they are all based on similar conceptualisations of the chemical and physical processes.…”

Section: Conceptual Basis Of Acidification Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model

Cosby

Ferrier²,

Jenkins

et al. 2001

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

245

196

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The MAGIC model of the responses of catchments to acidic deposition has been applied and tested extensively over a 15 year period at many sites and in many regions around the world. Overall, the model has proven to be robust, reliable and useful in a variety of scientific and managerial activities. Over the years, several refinements and additions to MAGIC have been proposed and/or implemented for particular applications. These adjustments to the model structure have all been included in a new version of the model (MAGIC7). The log aluminium -pH relationship now does not have to be fixed to aluminium trihydroxide solubility. Buffering by organic acids using a triprotic analog is now included. Dynamics of nitrogen retention and loss in catchments can now be linked to soil nitrogen and carbon pools. Simulation of short-term episodic response by mixing fractions of different water types is also possible. This paper presents a review of the conceptual structure of MAGIC7 relating to long-term simulation of acidification and recovery, describes the conceptual basis of the new nitrogen dynamics and provides a comprehensive update of the equations, variables, parameters and inputs for the model.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conceptual Basis Of Acidification Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model

Cosby

Ferrier²,

Jenkins

et al. 2001

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

245

196

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…ForSAFE builds on the merger and then the improvement of the PnET forest growth model (Aber and Federer, 1992;Aber et al, 1997) and the SAFE soil geochemistry model (Warfvinge et al, 1993). It is a dynamic and process-based model at forest-stand scale.…”

Section: Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined effect of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change on temperate forest soil biogeochemistry: A modeling approach

Gaudio

Belyazid²,

Gendre

et al. 2015

Ecological Modelling

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A B S T R A C TAtmospheric N deposition is known to severely impact forest ecosystem functioning by influencing soil biogeochemistry and nutrient balance, and consequently tree growth and overall forest health and biodiversity. Moreover, because climate greatly influences soil processes, climate change and atmospheric N deposition must both be taken into account when analysing the evolution of forest ecosystem status over time. Dynamic biogeochemical models have been developed to test different climate and atmospheric N deposition scenarios and their potential interactions in the long term. In this study, the ForSAFE model was used to predict the combined effect of atmospheric N deposition and climate change on two temperate forest ecosystems in France dominated by oak and spruce, and more precisely on forest soil biogeochemistry, from today to 2100. After a calibration step and following a careful statistical validation process, two atmospheric N deposition scenarios were tested: the current legislation in Europe (CLE) and the maximum feasible reduction (MFR) scenarios. They were combined with three climate scenarios: current climate scenario, worst-case climate scenario (A2) and best-case climate scenario (B1). The changes in base saturation and inorganic N concentration in the soil solution were compared across all scenario combinations, with the aim of forecasting the state of acidification, eutrophication and forest ecosystem recovery up to the year 2100.Simulations highlighted that climate had a stronger impact on soil base saturation, whereas atmospheric deposition had a comparative effect or a higher effect than climate on N concentration in the soil solution. Although deposition remains the main factor determining the evolution of N concentration in soil solution, increased temperature had a significant effect. Results also highlighted the necessity of considering the joint effect of both climate and atmospheric N deposition on soil biogeochemistry.

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“…Critical loads, however, do not provide information about the (speed of) recovery of an ecosystem. Therefore, dynamic acidification models such as SMART (De Vries et al, 1989), MAGIC (Cosby et al, 2001;Cosby et al, 1985) and SAFE (Warfvinge et al, 1993) have been used to evaluate the effects of future deposition scenarios on recovery. Ideally, the dynamic model should extend the critical load model so that dynamic processes are taken into account while all other process descriptions are compatible with those in the critical load model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

Reinds

Oijen²,

Heuvelink

et al. 2008

Geoderma

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Over the past years, Bayesian calibration methods have been successfully applied to calibrate ecosystem models. Bayesian methods combine prior probability distributions of model parameters, based on assumptions about their magnitude and uncertainty, with estimates of the likelihood of the simulation results by comparison with observed values. Bayesian methods also quantify the uncertainty in the updated posterior parameters, which can be used to perform an analysis of model output uncertainty. In this paper, we apply Bayesian techniques to calibrate the VSD soil acidification model for 182 intensively monitored forest sites in Europe. Prior distributions for the model parameters were based on available literature. Since the available literature shows a strong dependence of some VSD parameters on, for example, soil texture, prior distributions were allowed to depend on soil group (i.e. group of soils with similar texture or C/N ratio). The likelihood was computed by comparing modelled soil solution concentrations with observed concentrations for the period 1996-2001. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was used to sample the posterior parameter space. Two calibration approaches were applied. In the singe-site calibration, the plots are calibrated separately to obtain plot-specific posterior distributions. In the multi-site approach priors are assumed constant in space for each soil group, and all plots are calibrated simultaneously yielding one posterior probability distribution for each soil group.Results from the single-site calibrations show that the model performs much better after calibration compared to a run with standard input parameters. Posterior distributions for HAl equilibrium constants narrow down, thus decreasing parameter uncertainty. For base cation weathering of coarse texture soils the posterior distribution is shifted to larger values, indicating an initial underestimation of the weathering rate for these soils. Results for the 2 parameters related to nitrogen modelling show that the nitrogen processes model formulations in VSD may have to be reconsidered as no evidence is found for a relationship between nitrogen immobilization and the C/N ratio of the soil, as assumed in VSD. The multi-site calibration also strongly decreases model error for most model output parameters, but model error is larger than the median model error from the singe-site calibration.Because the large number of plots calibrated at the same time provides very many observations, the Markov chain converges to a very narrow parameter space, leaving little room for posterior parameter uncertainty. For an uncertainty analysis with VSD on the European scale, this study provides promising results, but more work is needed to investigate how the results can be used on a European scale by looking at regional patterns in calibrated parameters from the site calibration or by calibrating for regions instead of all of Europe.

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Modelling long-term cation supply in acidified forest stands

Cited by 108 publications

References 23 publications

Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model

Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model

Combined effect of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and climate change on temperate forest soil biogeochemistry: A modeling approach

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

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