Modelling Inter-urban Migration in an Open Population Setting: The Case of New Zealand

Alimi, Omoniyi; Maré, David C.; Poot, Jacques

doi:10.1007/978-981-13-9231-3_11

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Adsera and Pytlikova (2015) use the data on immigration to 30 OECD destination countries from the rest of the world for the period 1980–2010 and highlight that linguistic proximity and English, as the official language of destination, increase the migration flows. Alimi et al (2019) highlight the role of demographic factors. Their finding suggests that youthfulness encourages outward migration, while agedness impedes it from urban areas.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This implies that migrants are more interested in ‘how many times’ rather than ‘how much’. Alimi et al (2019) find noteworthy differences in the impact of migration determinants when comparing urban–urban, urban–rural and urban–world migration flows. Considering the economic determinants, they find that the interurban migration flow is positively affected by the income growth in the destination region and inversely affected by income growth in the source region.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pu et al (2019) employ the space-time dimension in the gravity equation to model dyadic interprovincial migration flows in China from 1985 to 2015. They decompose the origin, destination and spillover effects into their contemporaneous short-term and long-term components.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration

Khan

Fatima

2022

Foreign Trade Review

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The recent global migration pattern indicates the importance of the movement of people from developing countries to developed countries in search of better economic opportunities. The G20 report of ‘International Migration and Displacement Trends’ mentions India at the top of the list of highly educated emigrants in G20 countries. The current study addresses the endogeneity problem in the migration determinants and attempts to highlight the major regional and economic determinants of migration flow from India to major OECD countries using the Gravity model of migration. We apply the Prais–Winsten regression method to address the cross-sectional correlation, while we apply instrumental variable regression and Hausman–Taylor regression estimation techniques to deal with the endogeneity issue. The findings reveal that the population of India, distance, common official language and per capita income differential are the major determinants of migration from India. In the backdrop of our findings, in terms of per capita income differential, there is a need for an upward revision in the pay scale of the white-collar workers in the organised sector. JEL Codes: C23, F22, J11, J60

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration

Khan

Fatima

2022

Foreign Trade Review

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“…New Zealand has a diaspora equivalent to about one fifth of its population and the percentage among those with tertiary education is among the highest in the OECD (Dumont and Lemaître 2005 ). Alimi et al ( 2019 ) model New Zealand’s gross internal migration flows jointly with international migration but this approach has yet to be extended to microeconometric choice modelling. The results reported in Sect.…”

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confidence: 99%

Quality of life, quality of business, and destinations of recent graduates: fields of study matter

Grimes

Badenhorst²,

Maré

et al. 2022

Ann Reg Sci

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One of the main challenges facing non-metropolitan regions is the attraction and retention of highly-educated young people. A loss of the brightest can lead to reduced business creation, innovation, growth and community well-being in such regions. We use rich longitudinal microdata from New Zealand to analyse the determinants and geography of the choice of destination of recent university and polytechnic graduates 2 years and 4 years after graduation. Rather than considering a range of location-specific consumption and production amenities, we assume spatial equilibrium and calculate, following Chen and Rosenthal (J Urban Econ 64:519–537, 2008), ‘quality of life’ and ‘quality of business’ indicators for urban areas that encompass all amenities that are utility and/or productivity enhancing (or reducing, in the case of disamenities). Specifically, we test whether students locate in places that are regarded as good to live or good to do business; and how this differs by field of study. Our estimates are conditional on students’ prior school (home) location and the location of their higher education institution. We find that graduates are attracted to locate in urban places that have high quality production amenities. High quality consumption amenities have heterogeneous effects on the location choice of students. Creative arts and commerce graduates are relatively more likely to locate in places that are attractive to business, consistent with a symbiosis between bohemians and business. Decision makers can leverage their existing local strengths, in terms of production and/or consumption amenities, to act as drawcards for, or to retain, recent graduates in specific fields.

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Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections

Cameron,

Poot

2024

Popul Res Policy Rev

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In this paper we focus on modelling and forecasting gross interregional migration in a way that can be embedded within multiregional population projections. We revisit, and apply, a family of spatial interaction models first formulated during the 1970s. The classic gravity model—in which migration is positively related to the populations of sending and receiving areas, but inversely related to various types of spatial friction associated with migrating between them—is a special case that is nested within this family of models. We investigate which member of the family of models gives the best fit when modelling five-year migration flows between the 66 Territorial Authorities (TAs) of Aotearoa New Zealand, using 2013 and 2018 census data. We find that predicting migration between two TAs can be improved by taking into account, firstly, an index of the ‘draw’ from all other TAs when modelling out-migration of any TA and, secondly, an index of the ‘competitiveness’ of a TA vis-à-vis all other TAs when modelling in-migration of any TA. We highlight the properties of the statistically-preferred model by simulating the impact on internal migration of an exogenous increase in Auckland’s population. In this model, such a population change affects not only migration flows from and to Auckland, but also migration between other TAs. The usefulness of this approach for population projections is assessed by forecasting the 2013–18 migration matrix by means of 2013 census data only. In this specific case, the model outperforms the classic gravity model in terms of forecasting gross migration, but not net migration.

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Modelling Inter-urban Migration in an Open Population Setting: The Case of New Zealand

Cited by 3 publications

References 59 publications

Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration

Revisiting the Gravity Model of Migration

Quality of life, quality of business, and destinations of recent graduates: fields of study matter

Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections

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