Modelling in the ‘Muddled Middle’

Clifford-Holmes, Jai Kumar; Slinger, Jill H.; Wet, Chris L. de; Palmer, Carolyn G.

doi:10.1002/9781118974414.ch11

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 37 publications

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“…Participatory system dynamics (PSD) is a form of SD that applies system diagrams and computer simulations in group settings (Voinov and Bousquet, 2010;Kopainsky et al, 2017). SD has been applied to environmental management interventions (Ford, 2000) for resilience (Bennett et al, 2005;Ciobanu and Saysel, 2020) and scenario planning (Turner K. G. et al, 2016;Miller et al, 2017;Allington et al, 2018), water resource management (Stave, 2003;Tidwell et al, 2004;Simonovic, 2009;Winz et al, 2009;Beall et al, 2011;Rehan et al, 2011;Wang et al, 2011;Clifford-Holmes et al, 2017b, a), marine ecosystems (Weller et al, 2016;Vermeulen et al, 2022), fire management (Collins et al, 2013), ecological restoration (Crookes et al, 2013;Turner B. L. et al, 2016;Menendez et al, 2020), and agro-ecological systems (Stave and Kopainsky, 2015;Brzezina et al, 2016;Turner B. L. et al, 2016;Von Loeper et al, 2016;Bennich et al, 2018;Herrera de Leon and Kopainsky, 2019;Turner and Kodali, 2020). Investigating the future is important as it improves our understanding of complexity-based SES by modeling dynamic behavior and non-linearity and behavior such as thresholds and regime shifts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A past–present–future lens of environmental change: blending applied paleoecology and participatory system dynamics modeling at a conservation site in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Forbes,

Clifford-Holmes,

Gillson

2024

Front. Conserv. Sci.

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Landscapes are social–ecological systems (SESs) that produce ecosystem services, which change over time in response to environmental, biotic, and social drivers. Failure to consider this variability, and the feedbacks that can stabilize or destabilize systems, can have consequences for sustainable ecosystem services provision. This study applies a conceptual meta-framework, past–present–future lens, to interpret changes in land cover and ecosystem services within the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa. Paleoecology (fossil pollen, spores, and charcoal) and participatory system dynamics modeling were used to explore long-term variability in provisioning ecosystem services (plant biodiversity) and the drivers of this variability (fire and herbivory) at Elandsberg Private Nature Reserve (Elandsberg PNR). From ca. 1800s, the paleoecological record suggests that environmental changes, particularly a transition to unpalatable Elytropappus-dominated vegetation, were driven by grazing and that an ecological threshold was crossed in ca. 1950s due to agricultural intensification. Participatory system dynamics was used to identify feedbacks in the dynamic SES structure. The ecological model replicates the paleoecological results and, furthermore, suggests that in the future, returning the system to within historical ranges variability may require sustained reductions in both grazing and fire over decades. This innovative approach blends paleoecology and participatory system dynamics to provide an evidence-based understanding of temporal variability and feedbacks for policymakers and land-use managers to inform sustainable land management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A past–present–future lens of environmental change: blending applied paleoecology and participatory system dynamics modeling at a conservation site in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Forbes,

Clifford-Holmes,

Gillson

2024

Front. Conserv. Sci.

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Coping with water supply interruptions: can citizen voice in transdisciplinary research make a difference?

Hamer

Lipile

et al. 2018

Water International

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Equitable Access to Water at Alfred Duma Local Municipality

Ndimande

2022

Practice, Progress, and Proficiency in Sustainability

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Water plays a central role in the life of society. However, factors such as population growth, pollution, and poor allocation and distribution mechanisms place severe pressures on adequate and equitable water supply. The aim of this chapter was to look into equitable water access in the Alfred Duma Local Municipality as well as the ecological governance framework that supports water access in local areas. The chapter also looked at the position of local municipality in water access and the impact of ecological scale on water provision. Many people are still unable to exercise their constitutional right to water in Alfred Duma Local Municipality, where most women feel disempowered, marginalized, and excluded from the process of making water access decisions. This brings challenges to disadvantaged and arginalized groups socially, economically, and environmentally where vulnerable and marginalised groups have no opportunity to equitably benefit from water access.

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Modelling in the ‘Muddled Middle’

Cited by 3 publications

References 37 publications

A past–present–future lens of environmental change: blending applied paleoecology and participatory system dynamics modeling at a conservation site in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

A past–present–future lens of environmental change: blending applied paleoecology and participatory system dynamics modeling at a conservation site in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Coping with water supply interruptions: can citizen voice in transdisciplinary research make a difference?

Equitable Access to Water at Alfred Duma Local Municipality

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