Modelling Heterogeneous Space–Time Occurrences of Earthquakes and its Residual Analysis

Ogata, Yosihiko; Katsura, Koichi; Tanemura, Masaharu

doi:10.1111/1467-9876.00420

Cited by 75 publications

(90 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The vertices of each Delaunay triangle comprise the epicenter coordinates of the three nearest earthquakes (Delaunay 1934); in particular, in the case of a one-dimensional space or time axis, a continuous piecewise-linear function, or broken line, of occurrence times is included. The coefficients of these functions are given at space or time vertex locations and additional points in the time interval or rectangular region (Ogata 2011b;Ogata et al 2003). Therefore, the function is uniquely defined based on linear interpolation of the coefficient values, and the characterization of such flexible functions for β requires a set of high-dimensional coefficients θ.…”

Section: Changes In B-values In Space and Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring seismicity diversity and anomalies using point process models: case studies before and after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan

Kumazawa

Ogata

Tsuruoka

2017

Earth Planets Space

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This paper reviews seismic activity in and around the Kumamoto region before and after the April 16, 2016, Kumamoto earthquake of M7.3 using statistical models such as stationary, two-stage, and non-stationary epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models to examine seismicity anomalies. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, most of the earthquake clusters before April 2016 are explained by the stationary ETAS model, except for a few clusters of swarm activity, one of which was remotely induced by the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (M9). The non-stationary ETAS model describes changes in the rate of background seismicity of swarm activity. Second, we revealed seismic quiescence relative to the stationary ETAS model in the foreshock sequence from the M6.5 earthquake on April 14, 2016, and further in the aftershock activity of the 2000 M5.0 earthquake that occurred in the shallower extension of the M6.5 foreshock zone. Thirdly, the main-fault and two off-fault aftershock clusters of the M7.3 mainshock show different features, caused by static triggering effects of the mainshock and/or effects induced by fault weakening. Finally, the b-value increased stepwise over time during the entire period of foreshocks and aftershocks, the reason of which is explained.

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Section: Changes In B-values In Space and Timementioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring seismicity diversity and anomalies using point process models: case studies before and after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan

Kumazawa

Ogata

Tsuruoka

2017

Earth Planets Space

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“…The images of the other parameters seem to be genuine except in the very margin of the region such as in Taiwan and in the southern part of the Ogasawara islands due to the magnitude incompleteness there. Incidentally, we can obtain contour images and color images on the lattice of these parameters covering the whole area by the interpolation (7) of the Delaunay triangles such as shown in Ogata et al (2003) and Ogata (2004).…”

Section: Etas: Spatial Variation In 5 Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the best fitted case among the candidates of the space-time ETAS models in Ogata (1998) was extended to the hierarchical version of the model (the hierarchical space-time ETAS model, HIST-ETAS model in short) in which the parameters depend on the location of the earthquakes (Ogata et al, 2003;Ogata, 2004). The software package of the computing programs is in preparation for publishing (Ogata et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Ogata

2011

Earth Planet Sp

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109

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The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for earthquake clustering. For more accurate seismic prediction, we modify it to deal with not only anisotropic clustering but also regionally distinct characteristics of seismicity. The former needs a quasi-real-time cluster analysis that identifies the aftershock centroids and correlation coefficient of a cluster distribution. The latter needs the space-time ETAS model with location dependent parameters. Together with the Gutenberg-Richter's magnitude-frequency law with locationdependent b-values, the elaborated model is applied for short-term, intermediate-term and long-term forecasting of baseline seismic activity.

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“…The optimal weight valuesŵ = (ŵ 1 ,ŵ 2 ) are objectively tuned by maximizing the integrated posterior distribution (so-called the marginal likelihood of t), adopting the Akaike's Bayesian information criterion (ABIC [e.g., Akaike, 1978]) to achieve the optimal constraint against the roughness of the function. For the details, see Ogata et al [2003aOgata et al [ , 2003b and .…”

Section: Appendix B: Estimation Of Nonhomogeneity In Space-time Pointmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: On‐ and off‐fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer rise normal fault of the 2007 great earthquake

Ogata¹,

Toda²

2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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The November 2006 great thrust earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 8.3 on the plate boundary in the Kuril (Chishima) Islands triggered as many vigorous normal‐faulting aftershocks in the outer rise region seaward of the trench as on‐fault aftershocks. Here we show that the aftershocks for a 40 day period preceding the January 2007 Mw = 8.1 event in the outer rise were less frequently observed than the rate expected by both the Omori‐Utsu formula and the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model while at the same time were more frequent along the plate boundary. We discuss whether such simultaneous quiescence and activation in the pervasive 2006 aftershocks might have been initiated by the onset of aseismic slip on the 2007 rupture plane. The stable fault sliding in an elastic half‐space demonstrates progressive stress shadowing in the outer rise and stress loading along the plate boundary. Furthermore, the rate‐ and state‐dependent friction of Dieterich quantitatively simulates temporal changes in seismic behavior. The same trends of the anomalous activities last in both zones after the 2007 rupture, which suggests that the slips continuously take place in the similar region on the fault throughout the period before and after the rupture. The Kuril case implies that temporal seismic quiescence in an aftershock sequence is useful in evaluating the possibility of the subsequent triggered event, thus suggesting itself as a potential earthquake‐forecasting model together with pervasive earthquake‐clustering models.

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Modelling Heterogeneous Space–Time Occurrences of Earthquakes and its Residual Analysis

Cited by 75 publications

References 27 publications

Measuring seismicity diversity and anomalies using point process models: case studies before and after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan

Measuring seismicity diversity and anomalies using point process models: case studies before and after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes in Kyushu, Japan

Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity

Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: On‐ and off‐fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer rise normal fault of the 2007 great earthquake

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