Modelling foreign labour inflows using a dynamic microsimulation model of an ageing country - Slovakia

Štefánik, Miroslav; Miklošovič, Tomáš

doi:10.34196/ijm.00220

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…It appears that generally, within approximately three or more quarters, increased inflow to unemployment transforms into employment growth. This points to supply-side limitations of employment growth in the Slovak labour market during a dominant part of the observation period (Štefánik & Miklošovič, 2020).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Using online job postings to predict key labour market indicators

Štefánik

Lyócsa

Bilka

2022

Social Science Computer Review

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We explore data collected as an administrative by-product of an online job advertisement portal with dominant market coverage in Slovakia. Specifically, we process information on the aggregate quarterly registered number of online job vacancies. We assess the potential of this information in predicting official vacancy, employment and unemployment statistics. We compare the characteristics of the online job posting data with those reported in comparable studies conducted for the Netherlands and Italy. Several differences are identified; most notably, our data are more persistent and stationary around a linear time trend. Additionally, we assess the predictive potential of the online job posting data by comparing in-and out-of-sample estimates of three regression models that predict job vacancy statistics and employment and unemployment levels one to four quarters ahead. Irrespective of the predictive horizon and labour market indicator, the online job posting data always provide a statistically significant predictor. These results are further solidified in an out-of-sample study that shows that forecast errors are lowest for predictions generated by models incorporating online job posting data. In general, the usefulness of the data seems best for longer forecast horizons.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 91%