Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe

Abstract

Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980-2005) and future (2041-2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector.

An Analysis of Regional Climate Simulations for Western Australia’s Wine Regions—Model Evaluation and Future Climate Projections

“…First, excessive moisture during this period can provide favorable conditions for diseases such as powdery mildew to develop (Nicholas et al 1994). It has therefore commonly been used in viticulture-climate evaluations (Cabré et al 2016;Fraga et al 2012Fraga et al , 2014. Second, it is used in the calculation of the dryness index, which is the third index included by Tonietto and Carbonneau (2004) in the MCC system and is used to describe the water component of viticulture regions.…”

“…It has been shown that hotter growing conditions can cause negative effects for wine grape color and acidity (Barnuud et al 2014a,b) as well as an increase in alcohol content (Duchêne and Schneider 2005;Jones and Goodrich 2008). Warmer and drier conditions have also been associated with significant advancements in the timing of phenological events, such as budburst and harvest, and decreases in wine grape yield (Fraga et al 2016). Furthermore, it has been indicated that some regions in the south of Europe will become climatically unsuitable to produce high-quality wine, while previously unsuitable northern regions will become viable under a range of future climate scenarios (Tóth and Végvári 2016).…”

Multivariate clustering of viticultural terroirs in the Douro winemaking region

“…Furthermore, a set of maps containing the Julian dates of the main grapevine phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) were also included as variables in the vegetation dynamics set. This data, which has been previously validated, was obtained from Fraga et al (2016a).…”

“…As such, it also becomes important to assess zones with high viticultural potential that are currently used for other less profitable crops, such as annual field crops, pastures and fruit trees (Figure 1a). Furthermore, climate change is projected to have strong negative impacts on both yields and quality of the wines produced in the DDR (Fraga et al, 2016a). A high resolution viticultural zoning of the DDR may allow developing adaptation measures against the projected warming and drying trends (Jones and Alves, 2012;Cunha and Richter, 2016;Fraga et al, 2016a,b).…”

Combining ecophysiological models and genetic analysis: a promising way to dissect complex adaptive traits in grapevine

“…Many PBMs have been used in various crops to conduct in silico simulation by integrating the existing genotypes with projected future environments, yet very few studies concerned grapes (Bindi et al, 1996;Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, 2006;Fraga et al, 2016). For example, phenology models have been successfully used to test the budbreak, flowering and veraison dates of grapevine cvs.…”