Modelling climate change impact on Septoria tritici blotch (STB) in France: Accounting for climate model and disease model uncertainty

Climate change and potential future risks through wheat diseases: a review

“…For example, Chancellor and Kubiriba (2006) assumed that the importance of powdery mildew in wheat in the United Kingdom will increase until 2020 and then will decrease until 2080 (Table 1). Fourth, even when comparing results of modelling approaches only, there might be great differences depending on the climate models used to make the projections such as reported recently by Gouache et al (2012). More importantly, the variability of projections listed in Table 1 indicates that disease problems caused by a changing climate will probably not worsen consistently, but may also improve the crop health situation in wheat.…”

“…Therefore, improved control of Fusarium head blight should have a high priority in the future in order to reduce mycotoxin contamination of grain and to ensure food security (Madgwick et al 2011). In contrast, severity of Septoria tritici leaf blotch in France is projected to decrease by 2-6 % at the end of this century (Gouache et al 2012, Table 2). Only one simulation study considered potential yield losses in addition to projections of disease severity parameters (Gouache et al 2011).…”

“…In the past 10 years several such simulation studies (Fernandes et al 2004;Gouache et al 2011;Volk et al 2010;Madgwick et al 2011;Gouache et al 2012;Racca et al 2012) have attempted to link wheat disease forecasting models, a few also including crop models, to regional climatic scenarios derived from global circulation models (GCMs). These simulation studies considered parameters such as changes in timing of wheat anthesis and corresponding levels of disease incidence or the number of years with low and high disease severity (Table 2).…”

“…Moreover, there is an increasing number of articles which focus on particular wheat diseases in relation to climate change, e.g. on future changes of Fusarium foot rot in the United Kingdom (Pettitt and Parry 1996), future Fusarium head blight risk in South America (Fernandes et al 2004) or in different European countries (Madgwick et al 2011;West et al 2012b;van der Fels-Klerx et al 2012), future karnal bunt risk in Europe (Dumalasova and Bartos 2009), future worldwide changes in rust diseases , future Septoria tritici leaf blotch risk in France (Gouache et al 2012), and future changes of different wheat diseases in Punjab, India (Kaur et al 2008). For example, the importance of stripe rust and Karnal bunt in Punjab, India is assumed to be reduced in the future due to temperature and humidity changes.…”

Socio-economic Impacts—Agricultural Systems

“…The Colorado beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata L. and the European cornborer Ostrinia nubilalis Hubner are examples of pests and diseases that are expected to show a considerable northward expansion in Europe under climatic warming . Studies show projected increases in the occurrence of several crop diseases with projected warming in the currently cooler parts of high-input cropping regions, such as UK Evans et al 2010) and Germany (Siebold and von Tiedemann 2012), whereas the risk of some diseases may reduce with warming in regions further south, such as France (Gouache et al 2013). As well as affecting crop yield, such changes will also affect the quality of the yield, for example through the occurrence of mycotoxins which may increase in northern Europe under the projected climate change (Madgwick et al 2011;van der Fels-Klerx et al 2012).…”