Modelling climate change impact on the streamflow in the Upper Wabe Bridge watershed in Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia

Gurara, Megersa Adugna; Jilo, Nura Boru; Tolche, Abebe Debele

doi:10.1080/15715124.2021.1935978

Cited by 25 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Particularly low flows during dry months are expected to decrease by ~60%. This is in accordance with the findings of [76,80], which reported that the percentage of the change in low flow is greater than that in high flow, and that the increasing rates of high flow are more serious under RCP8.5 than under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The predicted streamflow trend corresponds to variations and trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration [48,81].…”

Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 92%

“…The largest increase was projected in July, at 34.12% for the period 2020-2050 under the SSP585 scenario. High evapotranspiration due to the increase in temperature may be the source of the reverse trends of precipitation and streamflow in the rainy seasons (Figure 7b) [75,76]. A decrease in discharge projected in June is linked to a decline in projected rainfall in both scenarios and periods.…”

Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…These findings are consistent with the growing evidence that the world is warming. Based on current precipitation patterns, studies [76,82] have shown that higher temperatures cause increased evaporation rates, which reduce streamflow and increase the frequency of droughts. This will almost certainly have a negative impact on the catchment's agricultural productivity and irrigation management.…”

Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Umugwaneza

Chen

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

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Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Streamflow Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Umugwaneza

Chen

Liu

et al. 2021

Water

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“…The highest projected maximum and minimum temperature increase was obtained under RCP 8.5 scenarios. This result agrees with previous studies in Ethiopia that reported a consistent increasing trend of projected T max and T min for all time horizons, with a higher rate of increase at the end of 21st century (Chakilu et al, 2020;Gurara et al, 2023;Dibaba et al, 2020a;Worqlul et al, 2018). Predicted LULC change impact on streamflow.…”

Section: Climate Change Projectionssupporting

confidence: 91%

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes on Streamflow in Yadot Watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia

Mustefa Abdule,

Muluneh,

Woldemichael

2023

Air, Soil and Water Research

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Climate and land use/cover (LULC) changes are essential factors that influence hydrological regimes by altering the groundwater recharge and river flow. This study investigated the separate and combined impact of climate and LULC changes on streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate streamflow under near-term (2021–2050) and mid-term (2051–2080) period against 1985 to 2015 baseline period. The Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model was used to predict the future LULC change. The three-ensemble average of regional climate models (CCLM4.8, RACMO22T, EC-EARTH) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios were applied for future climate projection. The LULC predictions between 2035 and 2055 showed an increase in agricultural land, grassland, settlement areas and woodlands by 44.02%, 30.35%, 69.2%, and 55.05%, respectively, while forest and scrub/bush lands showed a decrease by decrease by 21.53% and 11.08%, respectively. The annual, wet, and dry seasons rainfall projections increased by 0.13%, 0.02%, and 0.85% respectively, during the near term period under RCP 4.5 scenarios. Overall, the annual, wet, and dry season rainfall projections showed slightly increasing tendency. The temperature projection consistently indicated a warmer future with the highest mean annual projected temperature being 2.0°C under high emission scenario during the midterm period. The projected streamflow under the combined impact of climate and LULC changes will increase by up to 8.72% in wet seasons and by up to 6.62% in dry seasons during the near-term period under RCP4.5 scenarios. Similarly, the projected mean annual streamflow will increase by up to 8.13%. The annual, wet and dry season’s streamflow projections showed a consistent increase during both near and midterm periods under both climate scenarios. Understanding the future response of streamflow under climate and LULC changes is crucial to plan adaptation options for water resources management under future warming condition.

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“…According to several studies, hydrological systems are extremely susceptible to climatic changes (IPCC 2007;Bates et al 2008;Zereini & Hötzl 2008;Toulmin 2009;Niang et al 2014). Changes in temperature and precipitation affect catchment ecosystems, which in turn affect water availability and increase the frequency of hydrological extremes such as drought and floods (Rotich & Mulungu 2017;Shagega et al 2019;Awotwi et al 2021;Gurara et al 2021).…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the data-scarce Upper Ruvu River watershed, Tanzania

Tibangayuka

Mulungu

Izdori

2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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This study assessed the impacts of climate change on streamflow in the data-scarce Upper Ruvu River watershed (URRW). The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was employed for generating the future ensemble-mean climate scenario based on six global circulation models (GCMs), under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The future projections were made in two periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100), and the baseline period (1951–1978) was used as a reference. The watershed hydrology was represented by the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model, which was calibrated and validated by using 5 and 4 years of streamflow data, respectively. Results indicate that the rainfall and minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in both periods, under both scenarios. This will potentially affect the streamflow that is projected to increase from March to August and decrease from September to February. The mean annual streamflow could potentially change from 48 m3/s in the baseline period to 45.6 and 56.5 m3/s during 2041–2060, and 52.4 and 67.4 m3/s during 2081–2100, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The minimum and maximum streamflows are also predicted to change in both periods, under both scenarios. Considering these results, the climate change will have significant impacts on the streamflows of the URRW.

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Modelling climate change impact on the streamflow in the Upper Wabe Bridge watershed in Wabe Shebele River Basin, Ethiopia

Cited by 25 publications

References 77 publications

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Impact of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes on Streamflow in Yadot Watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow in the data-scarce Upper Ruvu River watershed, Tanzania

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