Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature‐dependent future of the <scp>C</scp>olorado potato beetle in <scp>E</scp>urope

Jönsson, Anna Maria; Pulatov, Bakhtiyor; Linderson, Maj-Lena; Hall, Karin

doi:10.1111/gcb.12119

Cited by 26 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In changed warmer climatic conditions, new pathogens will give rise to new problems in the future (Jönsson et al, 2013). Our results confirm that potato early blight has already become a more serious problem for North-East European organic potato growers.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…In recent years, early blight has occurred with increasing frequency in potato fields in northern regions, especially on fields with susceptible potato cultivars and damage has been more serious than before due to changed climate conditions (Kocmánková et al, 2010). Moreover, Jönsson et al (2013) predict further increase in warmer summers, which could cause greater problems from this pathogen in northern regions. In Latvia, Treikale et al (2008) have reported increased potato early blight damage in recent years on potatoes grown as a monoculture with a high level of nitrogen.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cultivation technology influences the occurrence of potato early blight (Alternaria solani) in an organic farming system

Runno-Paurson

Hansen

Tein

et al. 2014

Zemdirbyste-Agriculture

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Nowadays, organically produced products have become more popular than ever and interest in them is still growing fast. The early blight causal pathogen Alternaria solani has not been considered a great threat to potato in northern climate conditions in the past and has not been routinely sprayed against. During our study early blight was evaluated in 2010 and 2011 on the plants of a potato cultivar 'Reet' in an organic farming experiment. In our study, both growing seasons were very favourable for early blight development. Significant differences between the two cultivation technologies were found (F 1,12 = 4.84, p = 0.048). In 2010, the area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) value was 303 on cover crop (CC) plots and 990 on CC + M (manure) plots that is three times higher, whereas in 2011, the AUDPC value was 967 on CC plots and 1195 on CC + M plots. Our results confirm that potato early blight has become a serious problem in North-East European organic potato fields and thus susceptible potato cultivars cannot be recommended for growing in an organic farming system. However, it is possible to influence the development severity of early blight by selecting the proper growing technology. Since, in the changing climate conditions and in susceptible cultivars, early blight is a potato disease that can cause early defoliation of plants and crop death, there is a need for resistant potato cultivars.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cultivation technology influences the occurrence of potato early blight (Alternaria solani) in an organic farming system

Runno-Paurson

Hansen

Tein

et al. 2014

Zemdirbyste-Agriculture

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“…Beetle survival does not appear to be affected by cold weather during the growing season (93). Rather, the number of generations per year increases with temperature, with each generation requiring around 400 growing degree days (>10 • C) (68,116,164). In Estonia, for example, the CPB produced a distinct second generation during 2010, perhaps for the first time since entering the country in 1965 (57).…”

Section: Climate Change and The Colorado Potato Beetlementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The temperature dependence of the CPB has motivated numerous studies on the potential effect of climate change on future distributions (68,72,116,136,159). In general, models predict an increase in the number of generations per year as the planet warms and consequently a poleward shift in the distribution in Eurasia, but results are highly sensitive to the climate model used.…”

Section: Climate Change and The Colorado Potato Beetlementioning

confidence: 99%

Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

Bebber

2015

Annu. Rev. Phytopathol.

238

177

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Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

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“…The developmental threshold has a major impact on the development and number of generations of CPB per year (Jönsson et al 2013). In Estonia, due to warm springs in some years, the beetles emerged already in early May allowing development of a second generation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenology and overwintering of the Colorado potato beetleLeptinotarsa decemlineataSay in 2008–2015 in Estonia

Hiiesaar

Jõgar

Williams

et al. 2016

Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section B — Soil & Plant Sc

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Before its establishment in Estonia at the beginning of the twenty-first century, the Colorado potato beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata Say was a notifiable quarantine pest for many years. In high-latitude environments it encounters strong evolutionary pressure to adapt to low temperatures due to high overwintering mortality and periodic influx of new individuals from more southern populations. Our study focused on gathering evidence for such a range shift leading to the formation of a permanent local population. The phenology and overwintering success of beetles was investigated from 2008 to 2015. Depending on weather conditions in the different years, the overwintered beetles emerged from the soil from the beginning of May to mid-June. Over 700 degree days accumulated in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2014 exceeding the limit needed for development of two generations. However, food supply and temperature distribution in the growing period enabled development of the second complete generation only in 2010 and 2013. Survival of overwintering beetles in field conditions varied between 18% and 47% in the different years. Winter mortality was not associated with low air temperature in any year as snow cover provided the necessary protection and winter soil temperatures at the depth of 30 cm remained at around 0°C for the duration of the whole observation period, with only some records as low as −3.5°C. The survival of overwintering beetles is more likely defined by factors other than low temperature. As a result of periodic invasions of beetles with naturally lower cold resistance originating from southern regions, the structure of the overwintering population in Nordic temperate conditions is not homogeneous. Moreover, this may also be derived from cultural practices, as commercial producers regularly apply agrochemicals while organic growers avoid them. ARTICLE HISTORY

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Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature‐dependent future of the Colorado potato beetle in Europe

Cited by 26 publications

References 57 publications

Cultivation technology influences the occurrence of potato early blight (Alternaria solani) in an organic farming system

Cultivation technology influences the occurrence of potato early blight (Alternaria solani) in an organic farming system

Range-Expanding Pests and Pathogens in a Warming World

Phenology and overwintering of the Colorado potato beetleLeptinotarsa decemlineataSay in 2008–2015 in Estonia

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