Modelling and optimal control of HIV/AIDS prevention through PrEP and limited treatment

Saha, Sangeeta; Samanta, G. P.

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2018.10.033

Cited by 34 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The former studies were mainly centered on the prevention and control of diseases, i.e., malaria, H1N1 flu, dengue, AIDS, Chikungunya, and Zika (Saha and Samanta 2019 ; Vairo et al 2019 ; Hausman et al 2020 ; Kaur et al 2021 ; Wang et al 2021 ). Among them, the first array of studies considered the epidemiology of diseases (Adams et al 2019 ; Mosnier et al 2019 ; Cissoko et al 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does temperature matter for COVID-19 transmissibility? Evidence across Pakistani provinces

Irfan

Ikram

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a global concern that is deteriorating environmental quality and damaging human health. Though some researchers have investigated the linkage between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility across different geographical locations and over time, yet these studies are scarce. This study aims to bridge this gap using daily temperature and COVID-19 cases (transmissibility) by employing grey incidence analysis (GIA) models (i.e., Deng’s grey incidence analysis (DGIA), the absolute degree GIA (ADGIA), the second synthetic degree GIA (SSDGIA), the conservative (maximin) model) and correlation analysis. Data on temperature are accessed from the NASA database, while the data on COVID-19 cases are collected from the official website of the government of Pakistan. Empirical results reveal the existence of linkages between temperature and COVID-19 in all Pakistani provinces. These linkages vary from a relatively stronger to a relatively weaker linkage. Based on calculated weights, the strength of linkages is ranked across provinces as follows: Gilgit Baltistan (0.715301) > Baluchistan (0.675091) > Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (0.619893) > Punjab (0.619286) > Sindh (0.601736). The disparity in the strength of linkage among provinces is explained by the discrepancy in the intensity of temperature. Besides, the diagrammatic correlation analysis shows that temperature is inversely linked to COVID-19 cases (per million persons) over time, implying that low temperatures are associated with high COVID-19 transmissibility and vice versa. This study is among the first of its kind to consider the linkages between temperature and COVID-19 transmissibility for a tropical climate country (Pakistan) using the advanced GIA models. Research findings provide an up-to-date glimpse of the outbreak and emphasize the need to raise public awareness about the devastating impacts of the COVID-19. The educational syllabus should provide information on the causes, signs, and precautions of the pandemic. Additionally, individuals should practice handwashing, social distancing, personal hygiene, mask-wearing, and the use of hand sanitizers to ensure a secure and supportive atmosphere for preventing and controlling the current pandemic.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does temperature matter for COVID-19 transmissibility? Evidence across Pakistani provinces

Irfan

Ikram

Ahmad

et al. 2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…Here we have formulated an optimal control problem corresponding to system (1) taking (i) treatment policy to symptomatically infected individuals and (ii) vaccination policies for susceptible and stressed people as control strategies. We have analysed how these control parameters make an impact on disease transmission and also try to optimize the cost incurred in their implementations [47,48,49]. A brief description about these control policies will help to understand their influence for controlling the disease transmission.…”

Section: Optimal Control Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of an Epidemic Model under the Influence of Environmental Stress

Saha¹,

Samanta²

2021

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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We have considered a compartmental epidemiological model with infectious disease to observe the influence of environmental stress on disease transmission. The proposed model is well-defined as the population at each compartment remains positive and bounded with time. Dynamical behaviour of the model is observed by the stability and bifurcation analysis at the equilibrium points. Also, numerical simulation supports the theoretical proofs and the result shows that the system undergoes a forward bifurcation around the disease-free equilibrium. Our results indicate that with the increase of environmental pollution, the overall infected population increases. Also, the disease transmission rate among the susceptible and stressed population from asymptomatically infected individuals plays a crucial role to make a system endemic. A corresponding optimal control problem has also been proposed to control the disease prevalence as well as to minimize the cost by choosing the vaccination policy before being infected and treatment policy to the infected as control variables. Numerical figures indicate that the vaccination provided to susceptible needs some time to reduce the disease transmission but the vaccination provided to stressed individuals works immediately after implementation. The treatment policy for symptomatically infected individuals works with a higher rate at an earlier stage but the intensity decreases with time. Simultaneous implementation of all control interventions is more useful to reduce the size of overall infective individuals and also to minimize the economic burden. Hence, this research clearly expresses the impact of environmental pollution (specifically the influence of environmental stress) on the disease transmission in the population.

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“…Lately, the study of social networks and the epidemiological analysis of diseases have attracted considerable attention, and extensive research has been carried out in these areas due to their prominent role in human life [1] . Social network studies have been conducted by researchers to analyze disease transmission, which enabled them to comprehend the behavior and geographic bridges of corresponding possible spread [2] , [3] , [4] , [5] , [6] . In addition, social networks provide practical methodologies to simulate diseases epidemic by developing mathematical models to predict critical features of outbreaks (including the size and variation of its response).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State estimation-based control of COVID-19 epidemic before and after vaccine development

Rajaei

Raeiszadeh

Azimi

et al. 2021

Journal of Process Control

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In this study, a nonlinear robust control policy is designed together with a state observer in order to manage the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak having an uncertain epidemiological model with unmeasurable variables. This nonlinear model for the COVID-19 epidemic includes eight state variables (susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, hospitalized, recovered, deceased, and insusceptible populations). Two plausible scenarios are put forward in this article to control this epidemic before and after its vaccine invention. In the first scenario, the social distancing and hospitalization rates are employed as two applicable control inputs to diminish the exposed and infected groups. However, in the second scenario after the vaccine development, the vaccination rate is taken into account as the third control input to reduce the susceptible populations, in addition to the two objectives of the first scenario. The proposed feedback control measures are defined in terms of the hospitalized and deceased populations due to the available statistical data, while other unmeasurable compartmental variables are estimated by an extended Kalman filter (EKF). In other words, the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, and insusceptible individuals cannot be identified precisely because of the asymptomatic infection of COVID-19 in some cases, its incubation period, and the lack of an adequate community screening. Utilizing the Lyapunov theorem, the stability and bounded tracking convergence of the closed-loop epidemiological system are investigated in the presence of modeling uncertainties. Finally, a comprehensive simulation study is conducted based on Canada’s reported cases for two defined timing plans (with different treatment rates). Obtained results demonstrate that the developed EKF-based control scheme can achieve desired epidemic goals (exponential decrease of infected, exposed, and susceptible people).

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Modelling and optimal control of HIV/AIDS prevention through PrEP and limited treatment

Cited by 34 publications

References 41 publications

Does temperature matter for COVID-19 transmissibility? Evidence across Pakistani provinces

Does temperature matter for COVID-19 transmissibility? Evidence across Pakistani provinces

Dynamics of an Epidemic Model under the Influence of Environmental Stress

State estimation-based control of COVID-19 epidemic before and after vaccine development

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