Modelling and forecasting snowmelt runoff process using the HBV model in the eastern part of Turkey

Abstract

Snowmelt runoff in the mountainous eastern part of Turkey is of great importance as it constitutes 60-70% in volume of the total yearly runoff during spring and early summer months. Therefore, determining the amount and timing of snowmelt runoff especially in the Euphrates basin, where large dams are located, is an important task in order to use the water resources of the country in an optimal manner.The HBV model, being one of the well-known conceptual hydrological models used more than 45 countries over the world, is applied for the first time in Turkey to a small basin of 242 km 2 on the headwaters of Euphrates river for 2002-2004 water years. The input data are provided from the automatic snow-meteorological stations installed at various locations and altitudes in upper Euphrates basin operating in real-time. Since ground-based observations can only represent a small part of the region of interest, spatially and temporally distributed snow cover data are acquired through the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) optical satellite. In the first part of the study, an automatic model parameter estimation method, Shuffled Complex Evolution, University of Arizona (SCE-UA), is utilized to calibrate the HBV model parameters with a multi-variable criteria using runoff as well as snow-covered area (SCA) to ensure the internal validity of the model. Results show that calibrations against SCA in addition to discharge simulate discharge nearly as well as calibrations against discharge only, but further suggest that longer time periods and more study catchments should be included to achieve more comprehensible conclusions. In the second part of the study, the calibrated HBV model is applied to forecast runoff with a 1-day lead time using gridded input data from Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) for the 2004 snowmelt period. Promising results indicate the possible operational use of runoff forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction data for flood mitigation, reservoir operation and dam safety.

Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

“…7), which shows a rapid discharge rise at the beginning of spring floods. Good results of using MODIS snow prod-ucts in other hydrological models have also been shown by Lee et al (2005), Udnaes et al (2007), Parajka and Blöschl (2008),Şorman et al (2009), Tahir et al (2011 and Berezowski et al (2015). The model performed worse during periods of intensive summer storms.…”

“…However, the SRM studies are focussed mostly on the winter half-year and are limited to study sites where snowmelt processes are dominant. Another popular model which benefits from satellite-derived SCF is HBV (Saelthun, 1996), with a number of studies showing use of MODIS snow products (Udnaes et al, 2007;Parajka and Blöschl, 2008;Şorman et al, 2009). In the WetSpa model the MODIS snow products were used to evaluate spatial distribution of predicted snow cover (Zeinivand and De Smedt, 2010) and for analysing its skill for discharge simulation (Berezowski et al, 2015).…”

Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Using Satellite-Derived Potential Evapotranspiration

“…The use of satellite-based data within data assimilation schemes is one of the most common applications, with snow data assimilation being among the most well studied (e.g., Andreadis and Lettenmaier 2006;Slater and Clark 2006;Tang and Lettenmaier 2010;Thirel et al 2013;Liu et al 2013). Exploration of satellite-based data for model calibration (Parajka and Blöschl 2008;Ş orman et al 2009;Franz and Karsten 2013) and as model input (Jacobs et al 2009;Behrangi et al 2011;Gokmen et al 2013;Xue et al 2013) has been more limited. In particular, there remains a need to identify high spatial and temporal resolution datasets for driving and validating spatially distributed hydrologic models.…”

Snowmelt Runoff Modelling under Projected Climate Change Patterns in the Gilgit River Basin of Northern Pakistan

“…Different hydrological models were previously used to account for discharge simulations in a basin where snowand glacier melt made major contributions to stream flow [9,[31][32][33][34]. The modelling of snow-and glacier melt varies from simple to complex.…”