Modelled Climate Change Impacts on Spring Canola Production Across British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of projected near future climate trends on the production of spring planted canola (Brassica napus, Brassica rapa, and Brassica juncea of canola classification) across British Columbia, Canada. Analysis of historic climate trends from 2001-2020, informed by the Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCNd) database, establishes patterns of warming temperatures and increasing precipitation values across the province over the early 21st century. Near future climate trends were modelled using CMIP6 climate models, from 2021-2040 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, with the projections downscaled using ClimateBC. The projected trends mirrored those of the observed historic record, while an observable relationship between rising levels of climate change and increasing projected annual precipitation and temperature is recorded. The subsequent crop modelling using the CSM-CROPGRO-Canola and DNDC models, fed with the modelled climate trends, highlighted the expectation for near future climate change to cause significant decreases in spring canola production across British Columbia.