Modeling wildfire risk in western Iran based on the integration of AHP and GIS

Objective: This study established an index system for assessing forest fire spread hazards and conducted a forest fire spread hazard assessment in the mountainous district of Beijing (including Fangshan, Mentougou, Changping, Yanqing, Huairou, Miyun, and Pinggu). The relationship between forested landscape spatial pattern and forest fire spread hazard was explored; this method provided the basis for the establishment of a landscape forest fire security guarantee system. Methods: The forest fire spread hazard assessment index system was constructed from four aspects: forest fuel, meteorological factors, topographic factors, and fire behavior. The weighted comprehensive evaluation method and area-weighted average method were used to calculate the forest fire spread hazard indices at the subcompartment scale and township scale. Moran’s I index was selected as the spatial autocorrelation index to analyze the autocorrelation degree and spatial distribution of the forest fire spread hazard index. Eleven representative landscape pattern indices were selected to analyze the main landscape spatial pattern affecting forest fire spread hazard by correlation analysis and principal component analysis. Results: (1) The areas with high, medium–high, medium-low, and low forest fire spread hazard grades accounted for 39.87%, 33.10%, 11.37%, and 15.66% of the study area, respectively, at the subcompartment scale and for 52.36%, 22.58%, 18.39%, and 6.67% of the study area, respectively, at the township scale. (2) The forest fire spread hazard index results obtained at the subcompartment and township scales in the Mountainous District of Beijing showed a spatial agglomeration distribution law. (3) The forest fire spread hazard was influenced mainly by landscape diversity (SHDI and PRD), landscape aggregation (AI, CONTAG, and PD), and landscape area (TA). Conclusions: The overall forest fire spread hazard in the mountainous district of Beijing showed a gradual increase from plains to mountainous areas. The land types of the high-spread hazard subcompartment mainly included general shrubbery and coniferous forestlands, and the dominant species in the high-spread hazard arbor forest subcompartment were mainly Platycladus orientalis, Pinus tabuliformis, and Quercus mongolica.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Determine the Weight Of The Evaluation Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest Fire Spread Hazard and Landscape Pattern Characteristics in the Mountainous District, Beijing

Wang,

Li,

Lai

et al. 2023

“…The rural inhabitants of drylands (~one billion people) whose livelihoods are directly dependent on the physical environment encounter potential levels of risk from climate threats, some of which are expected to become more frequent and intense with climate change [8]. For example, the changing climate will have potential impact on future forest fires [9][10][11]. The shifts in forest community composition are associated with fire date, intensity, and consumption of upper soil layers, specifically organic soil horizons during recent fires [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under exponential increase in earth temperature due to climate change, forest fire departments will encounter drier weather conditions that could push the present suppression capability beyond its tipping point, resulting in a significant increase in fire extent [9]. The modeling of wildfire risk in western Iran based on the integration analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system revealed that about 65% of the region was located in the high-and very high-risk zones [10]. Therefore, it is essential that the techniques of patrolling, detecting and fighting forest fires are available to forestry managers and responders.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Small-Extent Forest Fires in Semi-Arid Environment in Jordan Using Sentinel-2 and Landsat Sensors Data

Qarallah

Othman

Al-Ajlouni

et al. 2022

The objective of this study was to evaluate the separability potential of Sentinel-2A (MultiSpectral Instrument, MSI) and Landsat (Operational Land Imager, OLI and Thermal Infrared Sensor, TIRS) derived indices for detecting small-extent (<25 ha) forest fires areas and severity degrees. Three remote sensing indices [differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), differenced Normalized Different Vegetation Index (dNDVI), and differenced surface temperature (dTST)] were used at three forest fires sites located in Northern Jordan; Ajloun (total burned area 23 ha), Dibbeen (burned area 10.5), and Sakeb (burned area 15 ha). Compared to ground reference data, Sentinel-2 MSI was able to delimit the fire perimeter more precisely than Landsat-8. The accuracy of detecting burned area (area of coincidence) in Sentinel-2 was 7%–26% higher that Landsat-8 OLI across sites. In addition, Sentinel-2 reduced the omission area by 28%–43% and the commission area by 6%–38% compared to Landsat-8 sensors. Higher accuracy in Sentinel-2 was attributed to higher spatial resolution and lower mixed pixel problem across the perimeter of burned area (mixed pixels within the fire perimeter for Sentinel-2, 8.5%–13.5% vs. 31%–52% for Landsat OLI). In addition, dNBR had higher accuracy (higher coincidence values and less omission and commission) than dNDVI and dTST. In terms of fire severity degrees, dNBR (the best fire index candidate) derived from both satellites sensors were only capable of detecting the severe spots “severely-burned” with producer accuracy >70%. In fact, the dNBR-Sentinel-2/Landsat-8 overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient for classifying fire severity degree were less than 70% across the studied sites, except for Sentinel-dNBR in Dibbeen (72.5%). In conclusion, Sentinel-dNBR and Landsat promise to delimitate forest fire perimeters of small-scale (<25 ha) areas, but further remotely-sensed techniques are require (e.g., Landsat-Sentinel data fusion) to improve the fire severity-separability potential.

“…Terrain-related factors, such as slope, elevation, and aspect, are usually derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). They are often included in the models for fire risk prediction, among other variables [22][23][24][25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling and Mapping of Forest Fire Occurrence in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship of Poland Based on Machine Learning Methods

Milanović

Kaczmarowski²,

Ciesielski

et al. 2022

In recent years, forest fires have become an important issue in Central Europe. To model the probability of the occurrence of forest fires in the Lower Silesian Voivodeship of Poland, historical fire data and several types of predictors were collected or generated, including topographic, vegetation, climatic, and anthropogenic features. The main objectives of this study were to determine the importance of the predictors of forest fire occurrence and to map the probability of forest fire occurrence. The H2O driverless artificial intelligence (DAI) cloud platform was used to model forest fire probability. The gradient boosted machine (GBM) and random forest (RF) methods were applied to assess the probability of forest fire occurrence. Evaluation the importance of the variables was performed using the H2O platform permutation method. The most important variables were the presence of coniferous forest and the distance to agricultural land according to the GBM and RF methods, respectively. Model validation was conducted using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the ROC plots from the GBM and RF models were 83.3% and 81.3%, respectively. Based on the results obtained, the GBM model can be recommended for the mapping of forest fire occurrence in the study area.