Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: A case study in North Dakota, USA

Abstract

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource.

Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

“…Also, Under the Normal and Wet climate scenarios, some variables which enter into the aquifer balance system will be increased and the groundwater balance will be improved. A number of studies have indicated that climate change can affect groundwater recharge [11,[26][27][28] and increases in precipitation would generally be expected to produce greater aquifer recharge rates [2,29]. So, alongside using of economical policy instruments, planning and applying of some methods to control climate factors such as precipitation, meaningfully are a part of each comprehensive program to management of groundwater balance vulnerability.…”

“…So, it can be concluded that adequate use of some economical instruments such as energy and irrigation water pricing under competition structure, can significantly reduce groundwater exploitation toward sustainable management of aquifer groundwater in some countries like Iran, in which prices of production factors, especially water, have not been defined in a competitive and real condition. Changes in groundwater vulnerability patterns are the result of human-environment-climate interactions across a range of spatial and temporal scales [11]. However, efficient and sustainable management of groundwater resources is increasingly becoming a policy objective.…”

Comparison of the AVI, modified SINTACS and GALDIT vulnerability methods under future climate-change scenarios for a shallow low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland

“…The vulnerability index was calculated based on the results of the simulations and compared with the vulnerability index for the initial condition. The effect of changing the specific parameters was calculated using the following equation (Li and Merchant 2013):…”

Multi-criteria potential groundwater contamination and human activities: Araras watershed, Brazil

“…Aquifer vulnerability can vary depending on the geological characteristics (rock composition, texture and structure); hydrogeological processes (recharge, water table depth); existing contaminants and human activities related to land use / land cover (GREEN et al, 2011;SRIVASTAVA et al, 2013;LI;MERCHANT, 2013). In free flow aquifers, this potential is higher due to the rapid recharge of the geological unit (IRITANI; EZAKI, 2009).…”