Modeling value of time for trip chains using sigmoid utility

Abstract

The use of modeling and simulation aids in deriving many decisions related to transportation planning and traffic operations. Representing the real systems via simulation allows exploring system behavior in an articulated way, which is often impossible in the real world. In this paper, a simulation-based framework is presented to evaluate the impact of congestion charging on daily activity plans of the individuals. Personal decision to accept the congestion charges is evaluated by comparing the value of time with congestion charge. Value of time varies throughout the day depending upon the time pressure at any moment exerted by preceding and succeeding activities. Time pressure during an activity increases if available time for that activity is insufficient to attain the perceived utility. Daily activities in the schedules are modeled using bell-shaped marginal utility that results in sigmoid utility. A model is presented which derives the activity specific parameters of the marginal utility function for the specific individual. To examine value of time of each person, the congestion charging is applied where personal willingness-to-pay is determined by comparing the ratios of cost to utility for original and adapted schedules. A large-scaled microsimulation of the modeled framework is used to simulate the whole population, which is created by FEATHERS, an operational activity-based model for Flanders, Belgium. The results of the simulation show that the number of individuals who avoid the congestion charges by adapting their schedules is almost three times the number of those who agree to pay it. The proposed framework can be useful to evaluate the tradeoff between value of time and costs where flexibility in selection of time defines the variability in cost.