Modeling Unpredictable Behavior of Energy Facilities to Ensure Reliable Operation in a Cyber-Physical System

Abstract

This research focuses on exploring various techniques and models for simulating the random behavior of energy facilities or systems. These simulations are essential in identifying the likelihood of component failures within the studied facilities. By assessing the potential consequences of emergency scenarios, this analysis serves as a fundamental aspect of synthesizing and analyzing reliability in the cyber-physical system. Ultimately, the study aims to enhance the management and control of reliability and safety for these facilities. In this study, a unified heating source is considered as an energy facility (as part of district heating systems), for example, a combined heat and power plant. However, the developed methods and models have sufficient universality for their adaptation to other energy facilities without significant changes. The research methodology is based on the use of Markov random processes and laws of the probability theory. The basic model of the energy facilities is formulated for the conditions of the simplest events flow with appropriate assumptions and constraints, in particular, ordinary events and independence of events (failures and restorations). To take into account the non-ordinary events (failures) and dependences between some failures, corresponding modifications of the basic model are proposed. A computational experiment was carried out using the developed models, and graphical interpretations of the results are presented. The obtained results allow us to formulate some preliminary conclusions about the range of influence of the simulated factors on the reliability analysis of studied facilities and to outline conditions and areas of their admissible application.