Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices

Yellow corn wholesale price forecasts via the neural network

“…Instead of utilizing a single source of information for forecasting, the VAR, as another popular econometric forecasting tool, is built upon investigated economic variables' relations Bessler & Brandt, 1992;Bessler & Chamberlain, 1988;Bessler & Hopkins, 1986;Chen & Bessler, 1987;McIntosh & Bessler, 1988;Rezitis, 2015). Previous studies have demonstrated that it has good potential for forecasting prices of cotton (Chen & Bessler, 1990), wheat (Yang, Zhang, & Leatham, 2003), and soybeans (Babula et al, 2004). As compared to the VAR, the VECM is built upon the concept of cointegration, which is used to further incorporate long-run relationships among investigated economic variables Xu & Zhang, 2023;Yang & Leatham, 1998;Yang et al, 2021).…”

“…Instead of utilizing a single source of information for forecasting, the VAR, as another popular econometric forecasting tool, is built upon investigated economic variables’ relations (Awokuse & Yang, 2003; Bessler & Brandt, 1992; Bessler & Chamberlain, 1988; Bessler & Hopkins, 1986; Chen & Bessler, 1987; McIntosh & Bessler, 1988; Rezitis, 2015). Previous studies have demonstrated that it has good potential for forecasting prices of cotton (Chen & Bessler, 1990), wheat (Yang, Zhang, & Leatham, 2003), and soybeans (Babula et al. , 2004).…”

“…One direction that has been pursued in the applied econometrics literature is utilizing time-series models for the purpose of building accurate and stable forecast results of commodity prices (Awokuse & Yang, 2003; Babula, Bessler, Reeder, & Somwaru, 2004; Bessler, 1982, Bessler, 1990; Bessler & Babula, 1987; Bessler & Brandt, 1981, Bessler & Brandt, 1992; Bessler & Chamberlain, 1988; Bessler & Hopkins, 1986; Bessler & Kling, 1986; Bessler, Yang, & Wongcharupan, 2003; Brandt & Bessler, 1981, Brandt & Bessler, 1982; Brandt & Bessler, 1983, Brandt & Bessler, 1984; Chen & Bessler, 1987, Chen & Bessler, 1990; Kling & Bessler, 1985; McIntosh & Bessler, 1988; Wang & Bessler, 2004; Xu, 2014, Xu, 2015; Xu & Thurman, 2015; Yang & Awokuse, 2003; Yang, Haigh, & Leatham, 2001; Yang & Leatham, 1998; Yang, Li, & Wang, 2021; Yang, Zhang, & Leatham, 2003). Some typical models sought in previous studies include the ARIMA model, VAR model and VECM model.…”

Canola and soybean oil price forecasts via neural networks

“…B Xiaojie Xu xxu6@ncsu.edu Yun Zhang yzhang43@ncsu.edu 1 North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA Researchers in econometrics have devoted significant amounts of efforts to accurate and stable commodity price forecasts. To achieve this goal, a large number of previous studies (Kling and Bessler 1985;Bessler 1982;Brandt and Bessler 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984Bessler and Chamberlain 1988;Xu and Zhang 2022i;McIntosh and Bessler 1988;Bessler and Brandt 1981;Bessler 1990;Bessler and Babula 1987;Xu 2014bXu , 2015aYang et al 2001;Bessler et al 2003;Bessler and Brandt 1992;Bessler and Hopkins 1986;Bessler 1987, 1990;Wang and Bessler 2004;Bessler and Kling 1986;Babula et al 2004;Awokuse and Yang 2003;Yang and Awokuse 2003;Yang and Leatham 1998;Yang et al 2021) have explored various types of (time series) econometric models and predictions from experts and commercial services. Common time series models in the literature for this forecast purpose include the auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), vector auto-regressive model (VAR), vector error correction model (VECM), and different types of their variations.…”

“…The VAR was compared with structural models for the forecast problem of U.S. cotton prices and it was found that the former tends to beat the latter during periods with normal price volatilities (Chen and Bessler 1990). It was demonstrated that the VAR can be useful in sorting out the predictive content among a set of wheat futures prices from different countries and U.S. soy and soybean prices of different regions (Babula et al 2004). Closely related to the VAR, the VECM further includes the long-run relationship(s) among economic variables via cointegration and it could be particularly helpful for long-term price forecasts (Yang and Leatham 1998;Yang and Awokuse 2003;Xu 2019a, b;Yang et al 2021).…”