Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

Dale, Virginia H.; Tharp, Marie; Lannom, K. O.; Hodges, Donald G.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050

Cited by 43 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…, environmental conditions) on the metabolic activity of soil (38, 39, 45, 57). In addition, the effects of climate change are likely to be driven by site-specific characteristics; therefore, it is important to consider the location-specific effects of climate change (11). The role of the microclimate in soil biological processes is often overlooked (47).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Monitoring of Soil Microbiological Activities in Two Forest Sites in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps

2014

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We monitored microbiological properties in two forest sites over a period of 17 years (1993–2010) within the International Cooperative Programme on Integrated Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Ecosystems (ICP IM). The two study sites were located in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps at altitudes of 1,737 m a.s.l. (subalpine site IT01) and 570 m a.s.l. (submontane site IT02). Soil samples were collected in the late spring and autumn of 1993, 2000, and 2010, and were characterized by measuring respiration, key enzyme activities involved in the C, N, P, and S cycles and litter degradation, and the abundance of viable bacterial and fungal populations. Over the study period, an increase in mean annual air temperatures at both sites (+0.6°C and +0.8°C at IT01 and IT02, respectively) was calculated from trendlines. Significantly lower mean annual air temperatures, higher temperature fluctuations, and higher annual precipitation rates were observed at site IT01 than at site IT02. Subalpine site IT01 was characterized by significantly lower microbial activity (respiration, enzymes) and abundance than those at submontane site IT02. The year of sampling had a significant effect on all the parameters investigated, except for nitrification. Fungal abundance decreased consistently over the study period, while no consistent trend was noted among the other parameters investigated. Season only affected a few of the measured microbiological parameters: respiration and bacterial numbers were significantly higher in the spring than in the autumn, while the opposite was noted for xylanase and phosphatase activities. Soil fungi contributed essentially to xylanase and protease activities, while soil bacteria were mainly involved in degradation processes that required the activity of sulfatase.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Term Monitoring of Soil Microbiological Activities in Two Forest Sites in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps

2014

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“…Tree species vary dramatically in their physiological tolerances, acclimation capacities, and autecology, and some will be much more resistant to hotter drought than others (Anderson-Teixeira et al 2013). Productive forests with high tree species diversity could be at less risk because rich species pools with rapid growth potential allow surviving tree species to quickly fill gaps and compensate for tree mortality losses; examples include both temperate (Dale et al 2010) and tropical (Fauset et al 2012, Peters et al 2015 forests. In places where global warming is better buffered by favorable geographic circumstances (e.g., coastal regions adjoining and downwind of cold oceans), forests may experience less warming, lower drought stress, and thus less tree mortality from hotter drought.…”

Section: Biological and Landscape Diversitymentioning

confidence: 99%

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

2015

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Abstract. Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broadscale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures-''hotter drought'', an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene-are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortalityrelevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

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“…Solomon 1986;Shugart et al 2003;Eggers et al 2008;Kellomaki et al 2008;Dale et al 2010). This is hardly surprising, considering the relative immunity of mature trees to changes in climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The importance of climate variability changes for future levels of tree-based forest ecosystem services

Rasche

2014

International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Servic

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The climate is changing, yet to which degree and in what pattern remains uncertain in many areas. In forest science, mainly impacts of long-term mean changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are studied. This paper therefore presents a sensitivity analysis to determine the importance of accounting for variability changes. A 10*10 matrix of different mean annual temperatures and precipitation sums is set up, covering the temperate forest zone of Europe, and the current level of several ecosystem services (ES) is calculated. Subsequently, mean and variability of temperature and precipitation distributions are changed in different steps, and new ES levels calculated. The results show that for the study of climate change impacts on forest ES, climate parameter variability is of secondary importance. The trends are well represented with scenarios of mean climate parameter changes only; however, on moisture-limited and heat-stressed sites impacts of changes in variability gain in importance. Most of these impacts are negative, and can be observed not only in monocultures already at their physiological limit, but also in diverse stands. Different ES, however, show different sensitivities towards changes in mean and variability, underlining the need to develop adaptation measures tailored to the sites and ES of interest.

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Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

Cited by 43 publications

References 69 publications

Long-Term Monitoring of Soil Microbiological Activities in Two Forest Sites in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps

Long-Term Monitoring of Soil Microbiological Activities in Two Forest Sites in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps

On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

The importance of climate variability changes for future levels of tree-based forest ecosystem services

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