Modeling the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in Caputo Type Fractional Derivative

Abstract

COVID-19 disease, a deadly pandemic ravaging virtually throughout the world today, is undoubtedly a great calamity to human existence. There exists no complete curative medicine or successful vaccines that could be used for the complete control of this deadly pandemic at the moment. Consequently, the study of the trends of this pandemic is critical and of great importance for disease control and risk management. Computation of the basic reproduction number by means of mathematical modeling can be helpful in estimating the potential and severity of an outbreak and providing insightful information which is useful to identify disease intensity and necessary interventions. Considering the enormity of the challenge and the burdens which the spread of this COVID-19 disease placed on healthcare system, the present paper attempts to study the pattern and the trend of spread of this disease and prescribes a mathematical model which governs COVID-19 pandemic using Caputo type derivative. Local stability of the equilibria is also discussed in the paper. Some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the analytical results. The obtained results shows that applied numerical technique is computationally strong for modeling COVID-19 pandemic.

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