Modeling the Time-Variant Dietary Exposure of PCBs in China over the Period 1930 to 2100

Abstract

This study aimed for the first time to reconstruct historical exposure profiles for PCBs to the Chinese population, by examining the combined effect of changing temporal emissions and dietary transition. A long-term (1930-2100) dynamic simulation of human exposure using realistic emission scenarios, including primary emissions, unintentional emissions, and emissions from e-waste, combined with dietary transition trends was conducted by a multimedia fate model (BETR-Global) linked to a bioaccumulation model (ACC-HUMAN). The model predicted an approximate 30-year delay of peak body burden for PCB-153 in a 30-year-old Chinese female, compared to their European counterpart. This was mainly attributed to a combination of change in diet and divergent emission patterns in China. A fish-based diet was predicted to result in up to 8 times higher body burden than a vegetable-based diet (2010-2100). During the production period, a worst-case scenario assuming only consumption of imported food from a region with more extensive production and usage of PCBs would result in up to 4 times higher body burden compared to consumption of only locally produced food. However, such differences gradually diminished after cessation of production. Therefore, emission reductions in China alone may not be sufficient to protect human health from PCB-like chemicals, particularly during the period of mass production. The results from this study illustrate that human exposure is also likely to be dictated by inflows of PCBs via the environment, waste, and food.

Lactational exposure to dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl 169 and nondioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl 155: Effects on rat femur growth, biomechanics and mineral composition

“…A recent German study also revealed a reduction in PCB body burden compared to earlier studies (Schettgen et al, 2015). In China, a long-term (1930China, a long-term ( -2100 dynamic simulation of human exposure to PCBs predicted an approximate 30-year delay of nondioxin-like PCB-153 peak body burden in an adult Chinese woman compared to a European counterpart (Zhao et al, 2018).…”

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) and Related Chemicals in the Global Environment: Some Personal Reflections

“…For China, the legacy from handling such wastes will remain an important part of their emissions inventory and baseline human exposure well into the future. 117,118 We are also still learning about previously unknown sources. Unintentional production of PCBs via combustion processes (e.g.…”

“…For China, the legacy from handling such wastes will remain an important part of their emissions inventory and baseline human exposure well into the future. 117,118 We are also still learning about previously unknown sources. Unintentional production of PCBs via combustion processes (e.g., metallurgical industries) and some manufacturing processes and remobilization during forest fires and natural burning events have also only recently been recognized as unexpected contributors to the inventory.…”

“…Imports and open burning of such wastes is now heavily controlled in China, but this has probably shifted the exporting (often illegally) of such wastes to other countries. For China, the legacy from handling such wastes will remain an important part of their emissions inventory and baseline human exposure well into the future. , …”

Exchange Dynamics of Typical Emerging and Legacy Persistent Organic Pollutants at the Air‐Water Interface Over a Strongly Human‐Influenced Large River Estuary

“…PCBs were manufactured and used heavily from the early 1930s to the late 1970s in developed countries but were prohibited thereafter (Breivik et al, 2002(Breivik et al, , 2007. In China, the accumulated production amount reached approximately 10,000 tons (production of PCBs was banned in 1974 in China), accounting for 0.8% of total global production (Xing et al, 2005;Zhao et al, 2018), and most of their applications were in East China (China, 2003). Thus, PCBs, with an application history similar to DDTs, are classified as legacy POPs in this study, while BDE-209 is classified as an emerging POP (Abbasi et al, 2019).…”