Modeling the relationship between propagule pressure and invasion risk to inform policy and management

Wonham, Marjorie J.; Byers, James E.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Leung, Brian

doi:10.1890/12-1985.1

Cited by 52 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 130 publications

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“…Estimates from these empirical studies are consistent with theoretical estimates of efficacy [e.g. 25,53,54] and indicate clearly that BWE reduces original zooplankton concentrations by roughly an order of magnitude, when performed properly (e.g. in approved BWE locations, flushing of 300% tank volume in flow through exchange).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

“…This is intended to reduce the concentration of viable coastal organisms delivered to ports and bays, and consequently the probability of establishment for coastal NIS, since the likelihood of establishment is density and frequency dependent [23–25]. Generally, BWE has been shown to decrease the abundance of plankton present in tanks, although diversity has been observed to increase post-exchange [26–33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the combined effects of ballast water management and trade dynamics on transfers of marine organisms by ships

Carney¹,

Minton²,

Holzer³

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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Global trade by merchant ships is a leading mechanism for the unintentional transfer of marine organisms, including non-indigenous species, to bays and estuaries worldwide. To reduce the likelihood of new invasions, ships are increasingly being required to manage their ballast water (BW) prior to discharge in coastal waters. In the United States, most overseas arrivals have been required to manage BW discharge since 2004, primarily through ballast water exchange (BWE), which flushes out ballast tanks in the open ocean (>200 miles from shore). Studies have found BWE to generally reduce the abundance of organisms, and the amount of water exchanged has been estimated at 96–100%. Despite its widespread use, the overall effect of this management strategy on net propagule supply through time has not been explored. Here, temporal changes in zooplankton concentrations and the volume of BW discharged in Chesapeake Bay, U.S. were evaluated, comparing pre-management era and post-management era time periods. Chesapeake Bay is a large port system that receives extensive BW discharge, especially from bulk cargo vessels (bulkers) that export coal overseas. For bulkers arriving from overseas, mean zooplankton concentrations of total and coastal indicator taxa in BW did not decline between pre- (1993–2000) and post management (2012–2013) eras, when controlling for season and sampling method. Moreover, bulkers discharged 21 million tonnes (82% of total for Chesapeake Bay) of overseas BW in 2013, representing a 374% increase in volume when compared to 2005. The combination of BW discharge volume and zooplankton concentration data indicates that (a) net propagule supply by bulkers has increased since BWE began in Chesapeake Bay; and (b) changes in vessel behaviour and trade have contributed strongly to this outcome. Specifically, the coal-driven increase in BW discharge volume from 2005–2013, concurrent with the onset of BWE regulations, worked to counteract intended results from BW management. A long-term analysis of bulker arrivals (1994–2013) reveals a 20-year minimum in arrival numbers in 2000, just when the implementation of BWE began. This study underscores the need to consider shifts in trade patterns, in order to advance and evaluate effective management strategies for biological invasions.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the combined effects of ballast water management and trade dynamics on transfers of marine organisms by ships

Carney¹,

Minton²,

Holzer³

et al. 2017

PLoS ONE

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“…Wonham et al . () highlight how improved understanding of the relationship between propagule pressure and establishment likelihood (the ‘risk–release relationship’) can provide avenues for reducing invasion risk.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating human behaviour into the risk–release relationship for invasion vectors: why targeting only the worst offenders can fail to reduce spread

Floerl

Inglis

Diettrich

2016

Journal of Applied Ecology

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1. Models of the spread of invasive species in transportation networks often assume a constant probability of transport across vectors, an assumption that is known to be false. The human dimension of these pathways is an important contributor to variation in vector risks. Yet, little attempt has been made to understand the effectiveness of strategies that involve changing risky behaviours. 2. We modelled the efficacy of management campaigns that aim to reduce the spread of invasive biofouling organisms by improving antifouling behaviour of boaters. We examined the influence of three factors on the effectiveness of the campaigns: (i) the proportion of the vessel population that is targeted by the measure, (ii) the average amount of change in behaviour made by individual boaters and (iii) the rate of uptake of the measure by the targeted population. 3. The modelled campaigns reduced the spread of an invasive species within New Zealand's recreational boating network by 0-56% over a 10-year period. The outcome depended strongly on the combination of the three factors examined. 4. Strategies that targeted only the 'worst offenders' caused relatively little reduction in spread unless there was very high uptake of the measure (>75% compliance) and a larger shift from current practice than could reasonably be expected. In comparison, a strategy that utilized a lower threshold for renewing the coatings and targeted a larger proportion of boaters was three times more effective, even for modest changes in current behaviour. 5. Synthesis and applications. Vector management can be effective in reducing the spread of a marine invader, but campaigns need to be well designed if they are to be effective. Their success will be determined by the shape of the 'risk-release relationship' and where along this curve the population of vectors lies. Greatest gains are likely when measures are targeted at critical transition points, where relatively small changes in behaviour lead to a considerable reduction in risk. High uptake of measures is required to reduce spread significantly. Combined 'carrot and stick' approaches that incorporate incentives for compliance are likely to be most effective at eliciting meaningful levels of change.

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“…Daehler 2006; Křivánek et al 2006;Chytrý et al 2008) are usually used as proxies for propagule pressure (e.g. Wonham et al 2013), analyses of bird invasions are often based on direct data on numbers derived from historical records of introductions ). Nevertheless, the quality of data on bird propagule pressure is increasingly being questioned in the literature (Moulton et al 2011(Moulton et al , 2012aSantos 2012), and this criticism has even been used to question the importance of propagule pressure as a key driver of establishment success.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How the Yellowhammer became a Kiwi: the history of an alien bird invasion revealed

Pipek¹,

Pyšek²,

Blackburn³

2015

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Citation: Pipek P, Pyšek P, Blackburn TM (2015) How the Yellowhammer became a Kiwi: the history of an alien bird invasion revealed. NeoBiota 24: 1-31. doi: 10.3897/neobiota.24.8611 Abstract New Zealand harbours a considerable number of alien plants and animals, and is often used as a model region for studies on factors determining the outcome of introductions. Alien birds have been a particular focus of research attention, especially to understand the effect of propagule pressure, as records exist for the numbers of birds introduced to New Zealand. However, studies have relied on compilations of bird numbers, rather than on primary data. Here, we present a case study of the alien yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella) introduced from the UK to New Zealand, to demonstrate how recourse to the primary literature highlights significant data gaps and misinterpretations in these compilations. We show that the history of the introduction, establishment and spread of the yellowhammer in New Zealand can be reconstructed with surprising precision, including details of the ships importing yellowhammers, their survival rates on board, the numbers and locations of release, and the development of public perception of the species. We demonstrate that not all birds imported were released, as some died or were re-transported to Australia, and that some birds thought to be introductions were in fact translocations of individuals captured in one region of New Zealand for liberation in another. Our study confirms the potential of precise historical reconstructions that, if done for all species, would address criticisms of historical data in the evidence base for the effect of propagule pressure on establishment success for alien populations.

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Modeling the relationship between propagule pressure and invasion risk to inform policy and management

Cited by 52 publications

References 130 publications

Evaluating the combined effects of ballast water management and trade dynamics on transfers of marine organisms by ships

Evaluating the combined effects of ballast water management and trade dynamics on transfers of marine organisms by ships

Incorporating human behaviour into the risk–release relationship for invasion vectors: why targeting only the worst offenders can fail to reduce spread

How the Yellowhammer became a Kiwi: the history of an alien bird invasion revealed

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