Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

Nunes, Julia K.; Cárdenas, Vicky; Loucq, Christian; Maire, Nicolás; Smith, T.; Shaffer, Craig; Måseide, Kårstein; Brooks, Alan D.

doi:10.1186/1471-2334-13-295

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Additionally, for every simulation combination (referred to as a scenario) results from multiple seeds were recorded to estimate the stochastic uncertainty in the predictions. Results for an EIR of 0.1 were not simulated but calculated by linear interpolation between the comparators and the results for EIR 1 (as done previously [19]).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

Penny

Galactionova

Tarantino

et al. 2015

BMC Med

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BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate recently completed Phase III trials in 11 African sites. Recommendations for its deployment will partly depend on predictions of public health impact in endemic countries. Previous predictions of these used only limited information on underlying vaccine properties and have not considered country-specific contextual data.MethodsEach Phase III trial cohort was simulated explicitly using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, and many hypothetical vaccine profiles. The true profile was estimated by Bayesian fitting of these models to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria in both trial arms over 18 months of follow-up. Health impacts of implementation via two vaccine schedules in 43 endemic sub-Saharan African countries, using country-specific prevalence, access to care, immunisation coverage and demography data, were predicted via weighted averaging over many simulations.ResultsThe efficacy against infection of three doses of vaccine was initially approximately 65 % (when immunising 6–12 week old infants) and 80 % (children 5–17 months old), with a 1 year half-life (exponential decay). Either schedule will avert substantial disease, but predicted impact strongly depends on the decay rate of vaccine effects and average transmission intensity.ConclusionsFor the first time Phase III site- and time-specific data were available to estimate both the underlying profile of RTS,S/AS01 and likely country-specific health impacts. Initial efficacy will probably be high, but decay rapidly. Adding RTS,S to existing control programs, assuming continuation of current levels of malaria exposure and of health system performance, will potentially avert 100–580 malaria deaths and 45,000 to 80,000 clinical episodes per 100,000 fully vaccinated children over an initial 10-year phase.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0408-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

Penny

Galactionova

Tarantino

et al. 2015

BMC Med

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“…13 While the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine was shown to confer limited efficacy in both children and infants and limited duration of immunity, 14 it is nevertheless expected to have a significant impact on the high disease burden of this deadly parasitic disease. 15 A malaria vaccine mathematical model showing the supply-and-demand forecast and the impact on public health and financial costs projected that 150 million uncomplicated malaria cases and 1.1 million mortalities would be averted through vaccination over a period of 10 years. 15 In July 2015, the EMA's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use and the WHO, through the Article 58 procedure, adopted a positive scientific opinion for the use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in markets outside the European Union.…”

Section: Results Of the Pivotal Trialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…15 A malaria vaccine mathematical model showing the supply-and-demand forecast and the impact on public health and financial costs projected that 150 million uncomplicated malaria cases and 1.1 million mortalities would be averted through vaccination over a period of 10 years. 15 In July 2015, the EMA's Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use and the WHO, through the Article 58 procedure, adopted a positive scientific opinion for the use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in markets outside the European Union. 16 This was to protect children 6 weeks to 17 months of age in malaria-endemic countries against P. falciparum infections together with other interventions such as insecticide-treated nets, residual spraying, and use of artemisinin combination therapies.…”

Section: Results Of the Pivotal Trialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccine Update: Recent Progress With Novel Vaccines, and New Approaches to Safety Monitoring and Vaccine Shortage

Ndaya-Oloo

Pitisuttithum

Tornieporth³

et al. 2018

The Journal of Clinical Pharma

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Vaccines are increasingly based on new constructs, new technologies, and new compounds. Novel immunization programs are rapidly implemented globally. In this article, we highlight selected hot topics of this highly dynamic and broad field of scientific and public health development. The first section focuses on novel vaccines including malaria, dengue, serogroup B meningococcal, and respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and antibodies. The second section is addressing emerging strategies and programmatic challenges including maternal immunization, integrated mother‐child safety monitoring, and finally coping strategies with vaccine shortages.

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“…1) clinician-versus-patient perception of malaria diagnosis (Chandler et al, 2008); 2) impact of different public health models on policymaker and developer decisions (Nunes et al, 2013); 3) the role of bioinformatics modeling techniques (Suhanic, 2009); 4) the role that social entrepreneur and community sector organizations can play in improving both the diagnosis of malaria and the implementation of interventions (Allen et al, 2010); and 4) the development of strategic partnerships between the public and private sectors (Njau et al, 2009). There have been some positive outcomes arising from such efforts.…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Making within the Built Environment as a Strategy for Mitigating the Risk of Malaria and other Vector-Borne Diseases

Obonyo¹,

Pareek²,

Woldu³

2018

Preprint

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Although significant efforts have been made to combat the spread of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), they still account for more than 17% of all infectious diseases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were 216 million estimated cases in 2016, which is a 9.3% decrease from the estimated cases reported one decade earlier. It is known that the built environment, through features such as openings, can propagate the spread of malaria. There have been some significant efforts directed at addressing this risk. This notwithstanding, there are some knowledge gaps that have resulted in a missed opportunity for synergistically tackling the problem of vectors through leveraging design decisions made by built environment professionals. This work assesses the extent to which design decisions in the built environment can have a positive impact on the efforts directed at mitigating the risk of malaria based on selected cases from East Africa. Secondary data derived from relevant urban health journals as well as repositories curated by leading health agencies such as WHO were synthesized and analyzed using a web of causation approach. The outcome of the analysis is a schema of primary and secondary source (risk) factors. The use of the web of causation approach revealed the existing factor-to-factor interactions that could have a reinforcing effect. This information was used to identify the critical linkages and interdependencies across different factors. The outcome of the analysis was mapped against risk factors that can be linked to decisions made during the six primary phases of the construction life cycle: preliminary phase, conceptual design, detailed design, construction, facilities management, and end of life/disuse. The findings of the research have established that 1) there is, in fact, a built environment–related opportunity that can be leveraged to advance the impact of malaria mitigation effort; 2) cross-disciplinary synergies are critical to managing the interdependencies and complexity of malaria risk factors that have a reinforcing effect; and 3) a knowledge-management framework that serves as a decision support tool would be valuable for sharing data under a push-and-pull mechanism, in which data shared in real time can address the timeliness of mitigating the spread of malaria at the earliest stages for the greatest impact. Based on the findings, a conceptual architecture for a decision support framework has been proposed. This will be developed into a knowledge-management platform in subsequent efforts.

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Modeling the public health impact of malaria vaccines for developers and policymakers

Cited by 11 publications

References 33 publications

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

The public health impact of malaria vaccine RTS,S in malaria endemic Africa: country-specific predictions using 18 month follow-up Phase III data and simulation models

Vaccine Update: Recent Progress With Novel Vaccines, and New Approaches to Safety Monitoring and Vaccine Shortage

Decision Making within the Built Environment as a Strategy for Mitigating the Risk of Malaria and other Vector-Borne Diseases

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