Modeling the potential suitable habitat of <i>Impatiens hainanensis,</i> a limestone-endemic plant

Abstract

Aims Modelling potential distribution ranges of threatened species is of great significance for their conservation. In this paper, the distribution of potential suitable habitat of Impatiens hainanensis, a limestone-endemic and endangered plant in Hainan Island, was studied to provide scientific basis for their effective in situ conservation and re-introduction of I. hainanensis. Methods Based on eight occurrence sites and 12 environmental variables, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm and GIS technology were used to create a model linking the distribution ranges of I. hainanensis with environments. With data on five actual distribution sites and five non-occurrence sites, four model evaluation metrics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), kappa coefficient, true skill statistic (TSS), overall accuracy) were used to evaluate the predictive performance and accuracy of this model. Important findings The results indicated that the indicative value of all four evaluation metrics were above 0.9, indicating that the MaxEnt model can effectively predict the potential suitable habitats of I. hainanensis. Slope, precipitation of the driest quarter and coefficients of precipitation variation were the three main environmental factors influencing the distribution of I. hainanensis. At present, the most suitable habitat includes western and southern parts of Baisha County, the central and southern parts of Changjiang County, the eastern part of the Dongfang City and northeastern Ledong County, accounting for 1.8% of land area on Hainan Island. Since the potential suitable habitat of I. hainanensis is rare and severely fragmented, the protection of this species is urgent. We suggest to collect the seeds of various geographic populations of I. hainanensis to establish a germplasm resource bank. The most suitable habitat of the species, including Tian'an Village and Jiangbian Village in

Leaf Traits and Water-Use Characteristics of Impatiens hainanensis, a Limestone-Endemic Plant under Different Altitudes in Dry and Foggy Seasons

“…The leaves of I. hainanensis show morphological plasticity in response to changes in distribution habitat type. We hypothesized that, in addition to soil water and karst fissure water, horizontal precipitation may be an important source of water replenishment for I. hainanensis during the dry season: the plant canopy traps fog water, which drips and percolates into the karst fissure soil and is absorbed by the plant roots and leaves [39,40]. The functional traits of I. hainanensis leaves in response to changes in environmental factors along the altitude gradient can be considered a "water adaptation metamorphosis" under changes in the dominant water factor.…”

Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan, China

“…The research results of Hernandez et al (2006) andDeb et al (2017) both showed that in the case of few geographical locations (<10), even as low as 4 or 5, the MaxEnt model can still produce effective prediction results with high accuracy. At present, the model has been applied to simulate and predict the potential geographical distribution of endemic species (e.g., Impatiens hainanensis; Ning et al, 2020), national protected species (e.g., Phellodendron amurense; Huang et al, 2018), and many other key species.…”

“…The geographical distribution pattern of species and utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the potential geographical distribution of species are one of the hot research issues in the fields of biogeography and biodiversity conservation (Gaston, 2000 ; Ning et al., 2020 ; Tripathi et al., 2019a ; Zhang & Ma, 2008 ). Studying on the geographical distribution pattern and predicting the potential geographical distribution of species are of great significance for developing effective biodiversity conservation strategies (Lazo‐Cancino et al., 2020 ; Zhang et al., 2019 ), preventing and managing the spread of invasive alien species diffusion (Fernandes et al., 2019 ), and assessing the impact of climate change on species distribution (Lazo‐Cancino et al., 2020 ), and they are also an effective means of protecting and managing some rare and endangered species.…”

“…The MaxEnt model employs the data of species distribution locations and environmental variables to jointly simulate the potential geographical distribution of species and has many advantages over other species distribution models, for example, easy operation and use, high simulation accuracy, and good performance with incomplete datasets (Li et al., 2020 ). Currently, the MaxEnt is the most widely used species distribution model (Gong et al., 2015 ; Merow et al., 2013 ; Ning et al., 2018 ). The research results of Hernandez et al.…”

Potential distribution of three types of ephemeral plants under climate changes

“…Ecological niche modeling has been increasingly used in species distribution, such as invasion species distribution, and species potential distribution under climate change ( Phillips et al., 2006 ; Huang et al., 2018 ; Ning et al., 2018 ). This model mainly uses known plant occurrence data and climate variables, according to specific algorithms, constructs a model, and projects the arithmetic consequence to predict the species’ current or potential distribution ( Phillips et al., 2006 ).…”