Modeling the potential distribution of Zelkova schneideriana under different human activity intensities and climate change patterns in China

Sun, Jiejie; Haojie, Qiu; Guo, Jiahuan; Xu, Xuan; Wu, Danting; Zhong, Lei; Jiang, Bo; Jiao, Jiejie; WeiGao, Yuan; Huang, Yujie; Shen, Aihua; Wang, Weifeng

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00840

Cited by 21 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…To consider the uncertainty introduced by splitting the training and validation sets, we repeated the operation 15 times. The model employed a set of four possibility features, namely logistic regression, bioclimatic rules, range rules, and negated range rules [11]. We selected logistic regression to explain the habitat suitability of these three species [40].…”

Section: Model Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We selected logistic regression to explain the habitat suitability of these three species [40]. As the outputs of the MaxEnt were the cumulative probability for each pixel on the scale of 0-1 or suitability index value (probability of presence) [41], we classified habitat suitability using four classes of the suitability index value: 0.5-1 = high-suitability area, 0.3-0.5 = medium-suitability area, 0.1-0.3 = low-suitability area, 0-0.1 = non-suitable area [11].…”

Section: Model Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…AUC values were considered excellent as they were larger than 0.9 in the training data and testing data [11]. The AUC values of three Carpinus spp.…”

Section: Model Performance and Contributing Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The human footprint includes multiple human activities that affect the natural ecosystems directly or indirectly [2,9]. It largely affects the habitat distribution pattern of many endangered species [10,11]. However, few studies have considered human activity factors as an environmental factor in developing SDMs and applied them to endangered species studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus Genus under Climate Change and Human Activity

Sun

Feng

Wang

et al. 2021

Forests

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The impact of climate change and human activities on endangered plants has been a serious concern in forest ecology. Some Carpinus plants have become extinct. Thus, we need to pay more attention to the Carpinus plants that are not yet extinct but are endangered. Here, we employed the species distribution model (SDM) considering different climate change scenarios and human footprint to test the potential habitat changes of three Carpinus species (C. oblongifolia, C. tientaiensis, and C. purpurinervis) in the future. Our results showed that the mean diurnal range of temperature (MDRT), isothermality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and human footprint were the most influential factors determining the distribution of C. oblongifolia. Precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variation), MDRT, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important climatic factors affecting C. tientaiensis. The minimum temperature of the coldest month was the most important factor in the distribution of C. purpurinervis. Our results also showed that the three species had different adaptability and habitat change trends under the future climate change scenarios, although they belong to the same genus. The potential habitats of C. oblongifolia would expand in the future, while the potential habitats of C. tientaiensis and C. purpurinervis would decrease for the same period. The predicted changes of these three endangered species on temporal and spatial patterns could provide a theoretical basis for their conservation strategies.

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Section: Model Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…AUC values were considered excellent as they were larger than 0.9 in the training data and testing data [11]. The AUC values of three Carpinus spp.…”

Section: Model Performance and Contributing Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus Genus under Climate Change and Human Activity

Sun

Feng

Wang

et al. 2021

Forests

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“…Environmental, biological, historical, and anthropogenic factors affect the distribution of species in space and time 1 . However, climate seems to be the most relevant factor for several taxa at large scales [2][3][4][5][6] . Throughout the last century, and especially over the last few decades, there have been global alterations leading to a warmer climate 7 with widespread effects on biological systems [8][9][10] .…”

Section: Darío Chamorro * Raimundo Real and Antonio-román Muñozmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change

Chamorro

Real

Muñoz

2020

Sci Rep

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The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard’s distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060–2080.

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Quantifying patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics to estimate population spread of an endangered plant species

Zhu

Hrušková

Pánková

et al. 2021

Ecology and Evolution

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Modeling the potential distribution of Zelkova schneideriana under different human activity intensities and climate change patterns in China

Cited by 21 publications

References 61 publications

Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus Genus under Climate Change and Human Activity

Predicting the Potential Habitat of Three Endangered Species of Carpinus Genus under Climate Change and Human Activity

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change

Quantifying patch‐specific seed dispersal and local population dynamics to estimate population spread of an endangered plant species

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