Modeling the Population Health Impacts of Heated Tobacco Products in Japan

Abstract

Objective: We evaluated the potential population health impact of launching heated tobacco products (HTP) in Japan. Method: We use a modeling approach to project the effects of HTP use in overall mortality up to 2100 and compare those projections against a baseline scenario based on smoking rates pre-HTP launch, ie, smoking only. The model was informed using data from publicly available sources and the literature, including population size, yearly deaths, and smoking prevalence with the initial year of 2004, and births and migration from 2004 to 2065. Transitions between products were estimated from cross-sectional population surveys in Japan. Result: In a worst-case scenario, population health gains would be seen with HTPs risk about 50% lower risk than smoking. Assuming equal risk for dual use and smoking, HTP risk would need to be at least 10% lower than smoking to achieve a population health benefit by 2100. Potential reduction in life-years lost with the introduction of HTPs was 13 million by 2100 compared with smoking only. Conclusions: In credible scenarios, substantial population harm reduction will follow the introduction of HTPs in Japan.

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study

“…Sensitivity assessments present 1,000 projections drawn using the transitions' 95% confidence intervals from either the E-Cigarette scenario based on USA data ( 19 ) and THP scenario based on Japan data ( 20 ). Reductions in life years lost (as life years saved for brevity) for the E-Cigarette and THP scenarios are displayed in Figures 3 , 4 .…”

“…The definition of product use status for e-cigarettes are based on usage in the previous 30 days while the e-cigarette transition probabilities are estimated from a Markov multistate transition model based on data approximately at 1-year intervals ( 19 ). The THP transition probabilities ( 20 ) are also based on 1-year intervals with product status definitions according to use in the last year. For e-cigarette initiation, this could mean that short-term experimental use of an e-cigarette maybe overlooked.…”

“…Details about the data inputs and multiple assumptions required to inform the three-product model can be found in Supplementary File 1 . For the two-product model implementations, in order to provide more useful projections than modelers' best estimates, we used published transition data between smoking and e-cigarettes estimated for the USA population ( 19 ) and transitions between THP and smoking estimated for the Japanese population ( 20 ). In the E-Cigarette scenarios, e-cigarettes are considered to be in the Italian market from 2010 while THP products are introduced in scenarios from 2014.…”

Data_Sheet_1.PDF

“…The definition of product use status for e-cigarettes are based on usage in the previous 30 days while the e-cigarette transition probabilities are estimated from a Markov multistate transition model based on data approximately at 1-year intervals (19). The THP transition probabilities (20) are also based on 1-year intervals with product status definitions according to use in the last year. For e-cigarette initiation, this could mean that short-term experimental use of an ecigarette maybe overlooked.…”

“…Details about the data inputs and multiple assumptions required to inform the three-product model can be found in Supplementary File 1. For the two-product model implementations, in order to provide more useful projections than modelers' best estimates, we used published transition data between smoking and e-cigarettes estimated for the USA population (19) and transitions between THP and smoking estimated for the Japanese population (20).…”