Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market

Abstract

Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP effective dose. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.

The impact of cigarette and e-cigarette use history on transition patterns: a longitudinal analysis of the population assessment of tobacco and health (PATH) study, 2013–2015

“…In recent years, several publications have discussed the use of computational models to assess the overall population level impact of e-cigarettes in terms of changes in smoking prevalence, additional life years, all-cause mortality, smoking-related mortality, etc. [15][16][17][18][19][20][21]. Transition probabilities regarding product switching and e-cigarette initiation and cessation were often assumed in published computational models.…”

“…However, definitions of product use and quitting behaviors may vary greatly between studies and cross-sectional surveys are not designed to study longitudinal transition patterns, thereby limiting these results. There are other population models [21][22][23][24][25][26] that have been developed to study the impact of introducing modified risk tobacco products. With reliable input parameters, these models could be used in the future to study the impact of e-cigarettes on the population.…”

Comparing the preclinical risk profile of inhalable candidate and potential candidate modified risk tobacco products: A bridging use case

“…Here, we present a use case of such a systematic bridging strategy. Specifically, we compare the effect and risk-reduction potential of two well-characterized candidate and potential candidate MRTPs, the abovementioned THS 2.2 and the Carbon Heated Tobacco Product (CHTP) 1.2, respectively [ 6 , 7 ], along the CELSD—from toxicant emission to exposure to (stress) responses to primary toxic effects to disease manifestations—which would finally constitute the population health impact/harm potential [ [8] , [9] , [10] ].…”

Using data on snus use in Sweden to compare different modelling approaches to estimate the population health impact of introducing a smoke-free tobacco product

“…The number of deaths in each group in situation A was then obtained by multiplying N*U*Pi by 1 for groups 1 to 3, RF for groups 4 to 6 and by RC for groups 7 to 9. The number of deaths in each group in situation B is the same as that in situation A in six groups (1,4,5,7,8,9) but is multiplied by RF for group 2, RC for group 3 and RC/RF for Group 6.…”