Modeling the late Pliocene global monsoon response to individual boundary conditions

Zhang, Ran; Jiang, Dabang; Zhang, Zhongshi; Yan, Qing; Li, Xiangyu

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04834-w

Cited by 15 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…5.3). In addition, the North African and Southeast Asian monsoon regions also show significant moistening signals, which are consistent with faunal remains and palynological transfer functions (Sanyal et al, 2004;Trauth et al, 2007;Xie et al, 2012) as well as with other modeling studies (Zhang et al, 2019;Li et al, 2020;. Zhang et al (2016) indicate that the combined influence of SST and CO 2 level, as well as the vegetation changes, play a very important role in changing the atmospheric circulation over North Africa during the mid-Pliocene, owing to the increased net atmospheric energy there.…”

Section: Changes In Precipitation Minus Evaporation (Pme) In the Pliomip2 Modelssupporting

confidence: 88%

Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Han

Zhang

et al. 2021

Clim. Past

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Abstract. The mid-Pliocene (∼3 Ma) is one of the most recent warm periods with high CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and resulting high temperatures, and it is often cited as an analog for near-term future climate change. Here, we apply a moisture budget analysis to investigate the response of the large-scale hydrological cycle at low latitudes within a 13-model ensemble from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The results show that increased atmospheric moisture content within the mid-Pliocene ensemble (due to the thermodynamic effect) results in wetter conditions over the deep tropics, i.e., the Pacific intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the Maritime Continent, and drier conditions over the subtropics. Note that the dynamic effect plays a more important role than the thermodynamic effect in regional precipitation minus evaporation (PmE) changes (i.e., northward ITCZ shift and wetter northern Indian Ocean). The thermodynamic effect is offset to some extent by a dynamic effect involving a northward shift of the Hadley circulation that dries the deep tropics and moistens the subtropics in the Northern Hemisphere (i.e., the subtropical Pacific). From the perspective of Earth's energy budget, the enhanced southward cross-equatorial atmospheric transport (0.22 PW), induced by the hemispheric asymmetries of the atmospheric energy, favors an approximately 1∘ northward shift of the ITCZ. The shift of the ITCZ reorganizes atmospheric circulation, favoring a northward shift of the Hadley circulation. In addition, the Walker circulation consistently shifts westward within PlioMIP2 models, leading to wetter conditions over the northern Indian Ocean. The PlioMIP2 ensemble highlights that an imbalance of interhemispheric atmospheric energy during the mid-Pliocene could have led to changes in the dynamic effect, offsetting the thermodynamic effect and, hence, altering mid-Pliocene hydroclimate.

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Section: Changes In Precipitation Minus Evaporation (Pme) In the Pliomip2 Modelssupporting

confidence: 88%

Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Han

Zhang

et al. 2021

Clim. Past

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“…10). This indicates that CESM 1.0.4 can reproduce present-day climate features 58 and is useful for simulating late Neogene Asian palaeoclimate 94,95 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Based on recent modelling of the global monsoon responses to Pliocene boundary conditions 95 , two other numerical experiments were performed in detail to evaluate climatic responses of monsoonal Southeastern Asia and arid Central Asia to CO 2 -induced global warming across the MPB. One scenario represents Pliocene conditions and was conducted with reconstructed Pliocene orography, ice sheets, vegetation, lakes, and a 400 ppm atmospheric CO 2 level from the PRISM4 (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping version 4) dataset 59 , with modern orbital parameters (year 1950), modern solar constant (1365 W/m 2 ), and preindustrial CH 4 , N 2 O, and aerosol conditions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary

Rohling

Zhang

et al. 2021

Nat Commun

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Across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary (MPB; 5.3 million years ago, Ma), late Miocene cooling gave way to the early-to-middle Pliocene Warm Period. This transition, across which atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased to levels similar to present, holds potential for deciphering regional climate responses in Asia—currently home to more than half of the world’s population— to global climate change. Here we find that CO2-induced MPB warming both increased summer monsoon moisture transport over East Asia, and enhanced aridification over large parts of Central Asia by increasing evaporation, based on integration of our ~1–2-thousand-year (kyr) resolution summer monsoon records from the Chinese Loess Plateau aeolian red clay with existing terrestrial records, land-sea correlations, and climate model simulations. Our results offer palaeoclimate-based support for ‘wet-gets-wetter and dry-gets-drier’ projections of future regional hydroclimate responses to sustained anthropogenic forcing. Moreover, our high-resolution monsoon records reveal a dynamic response to eccentricity modulation of solar insolation, with predominant 405-kyr and ~100-kyr periodicities between 8.1 and 3.4 Ma.

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“…It is also seen in previous modeling studies using various configurations that the hydrological cycle can change in either direction due to warming in East Asia, as we have shown. The increase in annual precipitation seen in Present‐day conditions (e.g., He et al., 2019; Kitoh, 2017) is also found in conditions where the Tibetan Plateau is still forming, including Pliocene conditions (Zhang, Jiang, et al., 2019). An opposite hydrological response, as shown in this study, can also be seen in Cretaceous experiments using other models.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Differences Between Present‐Day and Cretaceous Hydrological Cycle Responses to Rising CO₂ Concentration

Higuchi

Abe‐Ouchi

Chan

2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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An increase in global precipitation as well as mean surface temperatures due to a future increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is seen in general circulation models (GCMs). In terms of the spatial variations, the precipitation in the tropics generally increases, while it decreases in the subtropics, both of which are attributed to increases in atmospheric moisture, moisture transport and its convergence and divergence ("rich-get-richer" mechanism;Held & Soden, 2006). However, a weakening of the atmospheric overturning circulation due to an increased static stability partially offsets the precipitation change (Vecchi & Soden, 2007).The CMIP 5 and 6 multimodel projections showed that the global monsoon precipitation will increase due to future global warming (Z. Chen et al., 2020;Lee & Wang, 2014). The strengthening of the hydrological cycle is primarily due to enhanced moisture flux convergence resulting from increased atmospheric moisture and enhanced surface evaporation, which is partly offset by the dynamic response due to a weakened circulation (Z. Chen et al., 2020). However, there are regional differences in the hydrological cycle responses in the monsoon regions, which is responsible for differences in the atmospheric circulation changes (Jin et al., 2020). In particular, the atmospheric circulation in East Asia weakens less compared to other monsoon regions, resulting in a large increase in the annual and boreal summer mean precipitations due to future global warming (Endo & Kitoh, 2014;He et al., 2020). The uniqueness of the atmospheric circulation

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Modeling the late Pliocene global monsoon response to individual boundary conditions

Cited by 15 publications

References 69 publications

Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary

Differences Between Present‐Day and Cretaceous Hydrological Cycle Responses to Rising CO₂ Concentration

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Modeling the late Pliocene global monsoon response to individual boundary conditions

Cited by 15 publications

References 69 publications

Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Evaluating the large-scale hydrological cycle response within the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble

Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary

Differences Between Present‐Day and Cretaceous Hydrological Cycle Responses to Rising CO2 Concentration

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Differences Between Present‐Day and Cretaceous Hydrological Cycle Responses to Rising CO₂ Concentration