Modeling the Integrated Expansion of the Canadian and U.S. Power Sectors with the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)

Abstract

System (ReEDS) model. The first portion of this report is focused on documenting augmentations made to the ReEDS model, building on prior work by Martinez et al. (2013). The work conducted and documented here aims to provide insights into the types of analysis this novel modeling capability can enable, rather than analyzing potential U.S-Canada power sector futures. The model is limited to long-term capacity expansion and high-levels steady-state operations and does not include detailed production cost of dynamic simulations. Development and validation work was conducted throughout the 2014 calendar year, relying heavily on the National Energy Board's Canadian Energy Futures 2013 (NEB 2013) study for input data, as well as significant communication with Natural Resources Canada staff. The analysis was conducted in the fall of 2014 and relies on model versions and data available at that time. In particular, the analysis uses published data inputs where available and applicable. In some cases, internal data and assumptions are applied to account for rapid changes in the market outlook that are not captured by the published literature. The version of ReEDS used is the NREL Base Model as of October 2014. This body of work includes a sensitivity analysis that considers several future power sector scenarios out to 2036. The analysis uses a self-consistent framework to evaluate the impact of assumptions on the model behavior. In particular, we model the impact of natural gas price projections, increased Canadian hydropower deployment, and increased renewable energy (RE) generation penetrations. While none of the scenarios presented are intended to be a forecast or prediction, the scenarios can collectively be used to understand trends and drivers within the modeled framework.

Modeling the integrated expansion of the Canadian and US power sectors

“…In this paper, we document a development effort to update an endogenous treatment of the integrated U.S. -Canada electricity sectors in the NREL Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. This effort is thoroughly documented in Martinez et al (2013) and Zinaman et al (2015). We also present results from an abbreviated scenario analysis, using this endogenous treatment, which demonstrates the new capability and yields initial insights into the influence of various drivers on power sector deployment.…”

“…The assumptions for the U.S. portion of the system are documented in NREL (2014). A more thorough description of these sources is included in Zinaman et al (2015).…”

“…A complete list of these exclusions is available in Lopez et al (2012). The Canadian wind resource is classified by TRG based on geographical information of average wind speed (Environment Canada 2008), which is converted based on a classification method detailed in Zinaman et al (2015).…”

Exploring the Impacts of Carbon Pricing on Canada’s Electricity Sector

“…They solve for least-cost combinations of generation assets while being constrained by factors such as technology costs, unit availability and performance, as well as policy impacts and regulatory considerations [5]. ESPMs have been used to study the Canadian grid as a whole [3,6], specific regions [7,8], and the integration of Canadian and American grids [9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

“…Similarly, Dolter and Rivers [6] analyzed the costs of decarbonizing Canada's electricity system under different scenarios and concluded that Canada needs to increase carbon prices to achieve carbon reduction targets by 2030. Some studies that included Canada used an added fuel cost to represent carbon pricing systems while focusing on the impact of other regulatory measures [9][10][11][12]14], while others imposed GHG emissions constraints [8,13]. Notably, Doluweera et al [7] modelled the western provinces of Canada using a carbon cap and an added fuel cost in addition to other regulations.…”