Modeling the impacts of climate change on the Arctic

Abstract

This study examines the long-term impacts of climate change on Arctic maritime transport, focusing on Polar Class 7 and 1B Ice Class vessels, which are predominantly used in the region. Using IPCC AR6's SSP1-2.4, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the research analyzes sea ice conditions and navigability from 2023 to 2100. The results show that during 2023–2100, the navigability of 1B ships will increase significantly. The navigable days, without the consideration of sea ice motion, for both types of vessels will be similarly year-round by 2100. Under SSP 5-8.5, PC7 ships will be able to sail the Arctic passages throughout all seasons except for the spring from 2070, while the navigable area of 1B ships shows a high possibility of expanding after 2100. The optimal shipping routes of PC7 ships from 2071 to 2100 are more distributed toward the North Pole with the decrease of sea ice extent. Particularly, after 2071, the Northern Sea Route is feasible for PC7 ships transporting to north European and American countries along the Arctic. These could significantly reshape the patterns of global shipping network and international trade among Asia, Europe, and America.