Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field

Abstract

The effect of climate change on crop production and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) pollution from subsurface drained fields is of a great concern. Using the calibrated and validated RZWQM2 (coupled with CERESMaize and CROPGRO in DSSAT), the potential effects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (CO2) on tile drainage volume, NO3-N losses, and crop production were assessed integrally for the first time for a corn-soybean rotation cropping system near Gilmore City, Iowa. RZWQM2 simulated results under 20-year observed historical weather data (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and ambient CO2 were compared to those under 20-year projected future meteorological data (2045)(2046)(2047)(2048)(2049)(2050)(2051)(2052)(2053)(2054)(2055)(2056)(2057)(2058)(2059)(2060)(2061)(2062)(2063)(2064) and elevated CO2, with all management practices unchanged. The results showed that, under the future climate, tile drainage, NO3-N loss and flow-weighted average NO3-N concentration (FWANC) increased by 4.2 cm year−1 (+14.5 %), 11.6 kg N ha−1 year−1 (+33.7 %) and 2.0 mg L−1 (+16.4 %), respectively. Yields increased by 875 kg ha−1 (+28.0 %) for soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] but decreased by 1380 kg ha−1(−14.7 %) for corn (Zea mays L.). The yield of the C3 soybean increased mostly due to CO2enrichment but increased temperature had negligible effect. However, the yield of C4 corn decreased largely because of fewer days to physiological maturity due to increased temperature and limited benefit of elevated CO2 to corn yield under subhumid climate. Relative humidity, short wave radiation and wind speed had small or negligible impacts on FWANC or grain yields. With the predicted trend, this study suggests that to mitigate NO3-N pollution from subsurface drained corn-soybean field in Iowa is a more challenging task in the future without changing current management practices. This study also demonstrates the advantage of an agricultural system model in assessing climate change impacts on water quality and crop production. Further investigation on management practice adaptation is needed. RightsWorks produced by employees of the U.S. Government as part of their official duties are not copyrighted within the U.S. The content of this document is not copyrighted. Abstract The effect of climate change on crop production and nitrate-nitrogen (NO 3 -N) pollution from subsurface drained fields is of a great concern. Using the calibrated and validated RZWQM2 (coupled with CERES-Maize and CROPGRO in DSSAT), the potential effects of climate change and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (CO 2 ) on tile drainage volume, NO 3 -N losses, and crop production were assessed integrally for the first time for a corn-soybean rotation cropping system near Gilmore City, Iowa. RZWQM2 simulated results under 20-year observed historical weather data (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006...

Maize and soybean root front velocity and maximum depth in Iowa, USA

“…Corre-Hellou et al, 2007). Process-based models such as DSSAT, APSIM, RZWQM, Hybrid-Maize, Adapt-N as well as commercial models are routinely used in this high production region to forecast crop yields (Morell et al, 2016), evaluate nitrogen rates to maize (Malone et al, 2010; Puntel et al, 2016; Sela et al, 2017), and benchmark management practices (Thorp et al, 2008;Wang et al, 2016) and climate change impacts (Wang et al, 2015;Paustian et al, 2016;Jin et al, 2017;Schauberger et al, 2017). To our knowledge, the validity of the root parameters used in the above modeling studies have not been evaluated.…”

Projected climate change effects on subsurface drainage and the performance of controlled drainage in the Western Lake Erie Basin

“…By the end of the century, atmospheric CO 2 is projected to rise to approximately 650 ppm CO 2 equivalent under RCP 4.5 and 1,370 ppm CO 2 equivalent under RCP 8.5 (Moss et al 2008). Although rise in CO 2 equivalent is unaccounted for, prior studies have concluded that this will have minimal impact on the agricultural water balance (Field et al 1995;Wang et al 2015).…”

“…For example, Ohio is projected to experience a greater increase in temperature and greater difference in the number of days with heavy precipitation than Iowa by midcentury (Pryor 2014). Singh et al (2009) and Wang et al (2015) projected that future climate would increase subsurface drainage discharge in Iowa, but differences in rainfall and temperature between Ohio and Iowa could affect subsurface drainage discharge differently in these two states. To determine how climate change will impact subsurface drainage discharge within the Western Lake Erie Basin, it is necessary to evaluate the water balance with localized climate projections.…”

Importance of geological information for assessing drain flow in a Danish till landscape

“…There has been several model studies on how soil parameters affect drain flow (Ma et al, 2007;Muma et al, 2014;Tiemeyer et al, 2007; and also studies on how the drain network set-up affect drain flow (Moriasi et al, 2013;Nangia et al, 2010;Walker et al, 2000;Wang, Mosley, et al, 2006). There has also been a number of studies on how the precipitation input and future climate change affect drain flow (Bosch et al, 2014;Tiemeyer et al, 2007;van Roosmalen, Sonnenborg, & Jensen, 2009;Wang, Qi, Xue, Bukovsky, & Helmers, 2015). However, the effect of deeper geology on drain flow has not been given much attention, and most drain models neglect the deeper geology and only cover the upper few meters.…”