Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed

Abstract

Climate and land use change can influence susceptibility to erosion and consequently land degradation. The aim of this study was to investigate in the baseline and a future period, the land use and climate change effects on soil erosion at an important dam watershed occupying a strategic position on the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The future climate change at the study area was inferred using statistical downscaling and validated by the Canadian earth system model (CanESM2). The future land use change was also simulated using the Markov chain and artificial neural network, and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was adopted to estimate soil loss under climate and land use change scenarios. Results show that rainfall erosivity (R factor) will increase under all Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The highest amount of R was 40.6 MJ mm ha−1 h−1y−1 in 2030 under RPC 2.6. Future land use/land cover showed rangelands turning into agricultural lands, vegetation cover degradation and an increased soil cover among others. The change of C and R factors represented most of the increase of soil erosion and sediment production in the study area during the future period. The highest erosion during the future period was predicted to reach 14.5 t ha−1 y−1, which will generate 5.52 t ha−1 y−1 sediment. The difference between estimated and observed sediment was 1.42 t ha−1 year−1 at the baseline period. Among the soil erosion factors, soil cover (C factor) is the one that watershed managers could influence most in order to reduce soil loss and alleviate the negative effects of climate change.

CMIP5 climate projections and RUSLE-based soil erosion assessment in the central part of Iran

“…The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) 30 , 31 model is widely used for estimating SE because it integrates many of the components of the SE process 13 , 26 , 29 , 32 , 33 . Apart from the anthropogenic factors driving SE, recent studies show that other factors influencing land degradation are climate-related 32 , 34 , 35 . On the other hand, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has launched the four future scenarios for earth greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission, which is known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 36 .…”

Grid-Scale Impact of Climate Change and Human Influence on Soil Erosion within East African Highlands (Kagera Basin)

“…On this basis, soil erosion models are applied to simulate and predict future soil erosion. Compared with climate change, the intervention of human activity on soil erosion is more intuitive, such as the effects of agriculture [ 19 ], changes in LULC [ 20 ], and the construction of water conservancy and soil conservation measures. Current research is mostly about the impact of the improvement of farming methods, changes in LULC types, and the arrangement of soil and water conservation measures dealing with soil erosion under individual or overlapping effects [ 21 ].…”

Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment Yield from the Logiya Watershed, Lower Awash Basin, Ethiopia

“…The rising GHG concentration due to continued gas emissions from different sources to the atmosphere affects climate variables and consequently alters hydrological cycles [10,[12][13][14][15]. The change in climate-mainly due to precipitation and temperature patterns-could significantly influence soil erosion rates, streamflow, and sediment yield, which (directly or indirectly) adversely affects water resource availability and ecosystems [13,[16][17][18][19]. In connection to this, numerous studies have indicated that changes in precipitation, temperature, and the interactions of these with land use and land cover change (LULCC) will be the main climate change related stress expected to exacerbate soil loss and sediment transport [20][21][22][23].…”