Modeling the Impact of Behavior Change on the Spread of Ebola

Conrad, Jessica; Xue, Ling; Dewar, Jeremy; Hyman, James M.

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-40413-4_2

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…This probability increases rapidly for a population with a limited number of mask wearers. One comparative advantage to using the force generated from the infectious is the probability of running into one of the stratified susceptible persons is one at the disease-free equilibrium, which corresponds to patient 0 [27].…”

Section: Contact Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We assume that the time, τ j , that a person spends in a compartment is exponentially distributed. This assumption results in a constant transition rate between compartment j to compartment k of γ jk = P jk /τ j [27]. That is, γ 01 = 1/τ 0 , γ 1a = P 1a /τ 1 , γ 1m = P 1m /τ 1 , γ ar = 1/τ a , γ mr = P mr /τ m , γ ms = P ms /τ m , γ md = P md /τ m , γ sr = P sr /τ s , γ sd = P sd /τ s , γ cd = P cd /τ c , and γ cr = P cr /τ c .…”

Section: Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments

et al. 2021

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The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented burden on public health and strained the worldwide economy. The rapid spread of COVID-19 has been predominantly driven by aerosol transmission, and scientific research supports the use of face masks to reduce transmission. However, a systematic and quantitative understanding of how face masks reduce disease transmission is still lacking. We used epidemic data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship to calibrate a transmission model in a high-risk setting and derive the reproductive number for the model. We explain how the terms in the reproductive number reflect the contributions of the different infectious states to the spread of the infection. We used that model to compare the infection spread within a homogeneously mixed population for different types of masks, the timing of mask policy, and compliance of wearing masks. Our results suggest substantial reductions in epidemic size and mortality rate provided by at least 75% of people wearing masks (robust for different mask types). We also evaluated the timing of the mask implementation. We illustrate how ample compliance with moderate-quality masks at the start of an epidemic attained similar mortality reductions to less compliance and the use of high-quality masks after the epidemic took off. We observed that a critical mass of 84% of the population wearing masks can completely stop the spread of the disease. These results highlight the significance of a large fraction of the population needing to wear face masks to effectively reduce the spread of the epidemic. The simulations show that early implementation of mask policy using moderate-quality masks is more effective than a later implementation with high-quality masks. These findings may inform public health mask-use policies for an infectious respiratory disease outbreak (such as one of COVID-19) in high-risk settings.

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Section: Contact Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mask-Ematics: Modeling the Effects of Masks in COVID-19 Transmission in High-Risk Environments

et al. 2021

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“…This fact, possibly already untrue in the pre-scientific period, is fully denied in the current days by a large body of evidence [10,11]. Important contemporary examples are constituted by the recent Ebola epidemics [12][13][14] and by 2009 H1N1 flu pandemics [15][16][17]. However, analysis of Spanish flu data have shown that even one century ago the spread and control of that devastating pandemics were deeply influenced by spontaneous as well as enforced behaviour changes [18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%