Modeling the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants with Gaussian convolution COVID-19: Could the wrong strategy ruin vaccine efficiency?

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, has been shown to mutate. In the absence of a vaccine, natural selection will favor variants with higher transmissibility rates. However, when a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated, natural selection will shift towards favoring variants that can resist the vaccine. These variants can therefore become dominant and even cancel out the benefit of the vaccine. This paper develops a compartmental model which simulates this phenomenon and shows how various vaccination strategies can lead to the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants.