Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission

Losio, Anthony A. E.; Mushayabasa, Steady

doi:10.1155/2018/5084687

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Other models on GW infections are predominantly deterministic compartmental models which are not validated using empirical data [11][12][13] or consider human hosts only. [14][15][16] It is important that interventions to reduce the prevalence of GW disease in dogs in Chad are informed by the dynamics of GW transmission, with the goal of ultimately eliminating the disease. 11 Two interventions commonly used for reducing GW infections are tethering of dogs and Abate treatment of water sources.…”

Section: (Which Was Not Certified By Peer Review)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations

Wang,

Perini,

Keskinocak

et al. 2023

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Guinea worm (GW) disease (or dracunculiasis) is currently transmitted among dogs in Chad, which presents risks for the human population. We studied how interventions implemented at different levels might reduce the spread of GW disease (geographically and over time) and what levels of interventions might accelerate elimination. We built a multiple-water-source agent-based simulation model to analyze the disease transmission among dogs in Chad, as well as in geographic district clusters, and validated it using local infection data. We considered two interventions: 1) tethering, where infected dogs are kept on a leash during periods of infectivity, and 2) Abate®, under which the water source is treated to reduce infectivity. Our results showed that elimination (0 dog infections) is most likely achieved within 5 years with extremely high levels of tethering (95%) and Abate (90%), when intervention levels are uniform across district clusters. We used an optimization model to determine an improved strategy, with intervention levels which minimize the number of dogs newly infected in the 6th year, under limitations on intervention levels across clusters; the number of dogs infected after 5 years of intervention could be reduced by approximately 220 dogs with an optimized strategy. Finally, we presented strategies that consider fairness based on intervention resource levels and outcomes. Increased tethering and Abate resources above historical levels are needed to achieve the target of GW disease elimination; optimization methods can inform how best to target limited resources and reach elimination faster.

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Section: (Which Was Not Certified By Peer Review)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations

Wang,

Perini,

Keskinocak

et al. 2023

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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“…Few publications include mathematical models on GW infections; these are mostly deterministic compartmental models, do not always use empirical data for calibration and validation 12 – 14 or consider only human hosts, and do not capture the dynamics of transmission in dogs, which is paramount in the current epidemic in Chad. 15 – 17 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs

Perini

Keskinocak

et al. 2020

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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The campaign to eradicate dracunculiasis (Guinea worm [GW] disease) and its causative pathogen Dracunculus medinensis (GW) in Chad is challenged by infections in domestic dogs, which far outnumber the dwindling number of human infections. We present an agent-based simulation that models transmission of GW between a shared water source and a large population of dogs. The simulation incorporates various potential factors driving the infections including external factors and two currently used interventions, namely, tethering and larvicide water treatments. By defining and estimating infectivity parameters and seasonality factors, we test the simulation model on scenarios where seasonal patterns of dog infections could be driven by the parasite's life cycle alone or with environmental factors (e.g., temperature and rainfall) that could also affect human or dog behaviors (e.g., fishing versus farming seasons). We show that the best-fitting model includes external factors in addition to the pathogen's life cycle. From the simulation, we estimate that the basic reproductive number, R 0 , is approximately 2.0; our results also show that an infected dog can transmit the infection to 3.6 other dogs, on average, during the month of peak infectivity (April). The simulation results shed light on the transmission dynamics of GWs to dogs and lay the groundwork for reducing the number of infections and eventually interrupting transmission of GW.

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“…Mathematical models play an important role in understanding and providing solutions to phenomena which are difficult to measure in the field [19,22]. Only a few mathematical models have been contributed by researchers on the study of GWD (see, for example [1,17,18,26,31]). For example Adetunde, [1] investigated the current pattern of GWD in the northern region of Ghana.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control analysis applied to a two-patch model for Guinea worm disease

Mushayabasa,

Losio,

Modnak

et al. 2020

ejde

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We applied optimal control theory to a mathematical model for guinea worm disease, to determine the effectiveness of optimal education campaigns on long-term dynamics of the disease. Our model is concerned with two different host populations, represented by two patches, sharing a common water source. We computed the basic reproduction number of the model and demonstrated that whenever the reproduction number is less than unity the disease dies out in the community. Also we established that when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity the disease persists. Utilizing optimal control theory, we explored the potential of time dependent education to eliminate the disease within 120 months. The model showed that time dependent education can be successful to minimize disease prevalence in the two patches, however, its success strongly depends on the total cost of implementation as well as its maximum strength. For more information see https://ejde.math.txstate.edu/Volumes/2020/70/abstr.html

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Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission

Cited by 7 publications

References 19 publications

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations

Agent-Based Simulation for Seasonal Guinea Worm Disease in Chad Dogs

Optimal control analysis applied to a two-patch model for Guinea worm disease

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