Modeling The Effect of Forest Fire and Deforestation on Mid-Sized Wild Cat (Felids) Occupancy in SE Asian Tropical Rainforest

Abstract

Felids are mammal groups that also experiencing the effects of forest fire and deforestation rate. By using camera detection method, two felid species, Prionailurus bengalensis and Pardofelis marmorata, of tropical rainforests in SE Asia have been studied. The studied area was a rainforest in Sumatra that has experienced several forest fires with annual deforestation rates of 1.69%-2.89%. Occupancy model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is in agreement that deforestation rate is the best explanatory covariate explaining the declining occupancy of those felid species. P. marmorata was known more sensitive to the both deforestation rate and forest fire frequency covariate effects since it has similar AIC values. While P. bengalensis was slightly affected by forest fires. Values of Area Under The Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) were >0.5 and these indicate adequate probability of forest fire effects on felid occupancy. Cut off value of occupancy of P. bengalensis was higher than P. marmorata. For P. bengalensis, the cut off value was 1.75 leading to a sensitivity and specificity of 62%. This is the threshold value for the prediction of numbers of P. bengalensis individual occurred where both sensitivity and specificity are maximized and as an effect of forest fire, and this can be used to classify areas as occupied by P. bengalensis.