Modeling the development of machine-building industry on the basis of the fuzzy sets theory

Abstract

Purpose. To analyze the state of development of Ukraine's machinebuilding industry as a whole and its individual subsectors at the background of modern macro, microenvironment and in the context of new geopolitical situation. The task was set to model the development of the industry on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets and to formulate suggestions for economic coopera tion with foreign investors, in particular EU countries in the field of machinebuilding. Methodology. The study is based on general scientific methods (analysis, synthesis, comparison, formalization, and others) and methods of statistical data analysis. The data regarding the main indicators of engineering enterprises' activities (the number of enterprises, the number of employed workers, average monthly nominal salary of workers, the volume of products sold by ma chinebuilding enterprises), as well as the volume of direct investments from Ukraine to economies of the world for the period of 2010-2017, was provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The apparatus of fuzzy logic (fuzzy sets) was used for studying and modeling the development of Ukraine's machinebuilding industry in the near future. This is one of the most effective math ematical theories aimed at formalizing and processing uncertainty of information. findings. The paper discusses the development trends of the machinebuilding in Ukraine for the period of 2010-2017. Despite the fact that in the structure of investments in fixed assets the machinebuilding complex makes up a large third, it was found that during 2010-2017 the number of enterprises and employed workers involved in the field of machinebuilding was steadily declin ing. Using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling based on fuzzy sets, the authors developed a model for assessing the level of development of the machinebuilding industry in the near future. According to the simulation performed, an optimistic and pessimistic forecast was developed taking into account and without taking into account the proposed parameters that cur rently affect the activities of machinebuilding enterprises in the context of the new geopolitical situation. originality. Using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling on the basis of fuzzy sets, a model for assessing the level of development of the machinebuilding industry for the near future was elaborated. Scientific originality is in the selection of quantitative and qualitative factors that have a significant impact on the dynamics of the development of machinebuilding in Ukraine. The improvement of the suggested parameters will bring Ukraine's machinebuilding to the European and world markets and will significantly improve the macroeconomic indicators of the national economy. Practical value. The model of assessing the state of Ukraine's machinebuilding industry developed by the authors will allow determining this state taking into account qualitative and quantitative factors, adapting these parameters to the real conditions of Ukraine's economy development and diver...

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