Modeling the community-level effects of male incarceration on the sexual partnerships of men and women

Knittel, Andrea K.; Snow, Rachel; Riolo, Rick L.; Morenoff, Jeffrey D.

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2015.11.005

Cited by 18 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…(Epperson, Khan, Miller, et al, 2010; Khan, Epperson, Mateu-Gelabert, et al, 2011; Khan, Miller, Schoenbach, et al, 2008; Rogers, Khan, Tan, et al, 2012; Widman, Noar, Golin, et al, 2014; Wise, Finlayson, Nerlander, et al, 2017) In addition, CJ involved women also disproportionately come from communities with high rates of CJ involvement for men, which alters sexual networks and the male-to-female sex ratio in ways that may favor STI transmission. (Dauria, Elifson, Arriola, et al, 2015; Dauria, Oakley, Arriola, et al, 2015; Knittel, Snow, Riolo, et al, 2015)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Self-reported sexually-transmitted infections and criminal justice involvement among women who use drugs

Knittel

Lorvick

2019

Addictive Behaviors Reports

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BackgroundWomen involved in the criminal justice system in the United States have high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STI). It is unknown whether criminal justice involvement is a marker for other risk behavior, such as sex exchange or drug use, or criminal justice involvement itself increases risk directly.MethodsThis study examines the relationship between STI and the frequency and duration of arrest, probation, and incarceration in a sample of women who use drugs (n = 394) in Oakland, California who reported having been tested for STI in the past six months. Logistic regression models of STI using criminal justice measures as independent variables were used, and subsequent estimates were adjusted for demographics, sex exchange, specific drugs used, and number of sexual partners.ResultsAny time spent in jail in the past year was associated with higher odds of recent STI (UOR = 2.28, 95%CI [1.41–3.51]), and short incarcerations (2–3 weeks) in jail most substantially increased the odds of an STI diagnosis (UOR = 7.65, 95%CI [1.03, 56.68]). Arrest and probation were not significantly associated with STI. After adjusting for the covariates, particularly sex exchange and opioid use, none of the criminal justice-related variables were significantly associated with STI.ConclusionsA substantial portion of the increased risk of STI that is associated with criminal justice involvement for women who use drugs is likely due to sex exchange. Longitudinal studies are needed to temporally separate criminal justice exposures, drug use, sex exchange, and STI outcomes.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Self-reported sexually-transmitted infections and criminal justice involvement among women who use drugs

Knittel

Lorvick

2019

Addictive Behaviors Reports

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“…Therefore, the existence of an intervention effect may depend on the interconnectedness or existence of higher risk networks related to incarceration. These results relate to a 2015 study using an agent-based model which found that incarceration could increase community-level HIV risk by changing sexual partnership patterns [42]. However, additional research is needed to better understand how incarceration influences sexual networks and post-release risk behavior in the real world.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 53%

Decreasing HIV transmissions to African American women through interventions for men living with HIV post-incarceration: An agent-based modeling study

et al. 2019

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Background Incarceration and HIV disproportionately impact African American communities. The mass incarceration of African American men is hypothesized to increase HIV acquisition risk for African American women. Interventions optimizing HIV care engagement and minimizing sexual risk behaviors for men living with HIV post-incarceration may decrease HIV incidence. Methods Using an agent-based model, we simulated a sexual and injection drug using network representing the African American population of Philadelphia. We compared intervention strategies for men living with HIV post-incarceration by the number of averted HIV transmissions to women within the community. Three interventions were evaluated: a 90-90-90 scenario scaling up HIV testing, ART provision, and ART adherence; a behavioral intervention decreasing sexual risk behaviors; and a combination intervention involving both. Results The status quo scenario projected 2,836 HIV transmissions to women over twenty years. HIV transmissions to women decreased by 29% with the 90-90-90 intervention, 23% with the behavioral intervention, and 37% with both. The number of men living with HIV receiving the intervention needed in order to prevent a single HIV transmission ranged between 6 and 10. Conclusion Interventions to improve care engagement and decrease sexual risk behaviors post-incarceration for men living with HIV have the potential to decrease HIV incidence within African American heterosexual networks.

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“…It is assumed that while men are in prison, they do not have any sex with heterosexual partners and do not form any new heterosexual relationships. Consistent with international literature [15, 139], we assume that women whose partners are currently in prison are more likely to acquire additional partners while their partner is in prison. The procedure is the same as that used to model the effect of partners being geographically separated, i.e.…”

Section: Demographic and Socio-economic Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, several models have been developed to simulate the potential effects of circular migration on the spread of HIV in South Africa [12–14]. Models have also been used to show how high rates of male incarceration can change the structure of sexual networks [15]. In addition, models have shown that high rates of HIV incidence in sex workers may be partly due to unsafe work environments and criminalization of sex work, which are associated with client sexual violence and police harassment [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MicroCOSM: a model of social and structural drivers of HIV and interventions to reduce HIV incidence in high-risk populations in South Africa

Johnson

Kubjane

Moolla

2018

Preprint

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Executive summary Background and objectives South Africa has one of the highest HIV incidence rates in the world. Although much research has focused on developing biomedical strategies to reduce HIV incidence, there has been less investment in prevention strategies that address the social drivers of HIV spread. Understanding the social determinants of HIV is closely related to understanding high-risk populations (‘key populations’), since many of the factors that place these key populations at high HIV risk are social and behavioural rather than biological. Mathematical models have an important role to play in evaluating the potential impact of new HIV prevention and treatment strategies. However, most of the mathematical modelling studies that have been published to date have evaluated biomedical HIV prevention strategies, and relatively few models have been developed to understand the role of social determinants or interventions that address these social drivers. In addition, many of the mathematical models that have been developed are relatively simple deterministic models, which are not well suited to simulating the complex causal pathways that link many of the social drivers to HIV incidence. The frequency-dependent assumption implicit in most deterministic models also leads to under-estimation of the contribution of high-risk groups to the incidence of HIV. Agent-based models (ABMs) overcome many of the limitations of deterministic models, although at the expense of greater computational burden. This study presents an ABM of HIV in South Africa, developed to characterize the key social drivers of HIV in South Africa and the groups that are at the highest risk of HIV. The objective of this report is to provide a technical description of the model and to explain how the model has been calibrated to South African data sources; future publications will assess the drivers of HIV transmission in South Africa in more detail. Methods The model is an extension of a previously-published ABM of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in South Africa. This model simulates a representative sample of the South African population, starting from 1985, with an initial sample size of 20 000. The population changes in size as a result of births and deaths. Each individual is assigned a date of birth, sex and race (demographic characteristics). This in turn affects the assignment of socio-economic variables. Each individual is assigned a level of educational attainment, which is dynamically updated as youth progress through school and tertiary education, with rates of progression and drop-out depending on the individual’s demographic characteristics. Each individual is also assigned to an urban or rural location, with rates of movement between urban and rural areas depending on demographic characteristics and educational attainment. The model assigns to each individual a number of healthcare access variables that determine their HIV and pregnancy risk. These include their ‘condom preference’ (a measure of the e...

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Modeling the community-level effects of male incarceration on the sexual partnerships of men and women

Cited by 18 publications

References 33 publications

Self-reported sexually-transmitted infections and criminal justice involvement among women who use drugs

Self-reported sexually-transmitted infections and criminal justice involvement among women who use drugs

Decreasing HIV transmissions to African American women through interventions for men living with HIV post-incarceration: An agent-based modeling study

MicroCOSM: a model of social and structural drivers of HIV and interventions to reduce HIV incidence in high-risk populations in South Africa

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