Modeling the average population of La Crosse vectors in Knox County, Tennessee

Abstract

La Crosse Virus (LACV) is an arbovirus found in Eastern Appalachia and can cause pediatric encephalitis in prepubescent children. To assess the risk and transmission of this disease, it is particularly important to understand the average population of Aedes mosquitoes, which are the vectors of this virus. We use a deterministic compartmental model to study the effects of environmental factors on the population dynamics of Aedes mosquitoes in the Knox County area. We use locally-collected mosquito population data to adjust our model outputs and find that model transitions are heavily dependent on the fluctuations of both temperature and accumulated precipitation. These findings should be considered for mosquito management in Southern Appalachia, as well as in other regions with slight modifications to our model.

La Crosse virus spread within the mosquito population in Knox County, TN

“…Building on two previous models using data in Knox County [25,27], we developed a nonautonomous system of ordinary differential equation to represent mosquito populations with the transmission of LACV in Knox County, Tennessee. Our model goes beyond those two mosquito population models to include the infected mosquito compartments and disease progression dynamics.…”

“…albopictus, and used some parameters described in Tran et al [26] for the immature class (larvae and pupae). Ghatak et al [27] then developed a model that incorporated temperature and accumulated precipitation to explain the dynamics of all three LACV vectors over a single season. The oviposition rate and transition rates from eggs to the immature class and then to the host-seeking class were estimated as functions of temperature and accumulated precipitation [27].…”

“…Ghatak et al [27] then developed a model that incorporated temperature and accumulated precipitation to explain the dynamics of all three LACV vectors over a single season. The oviposition rate and transition rates from eggs to the immature class and then to the host-seeking class were estimated as functions of temperature and accumulated precipitation [27]. While both models were useful, these two models did not involve mosquitoes infected with LACV.…”