Modeling stand-level mortality based on maximum stem number and seasonal temperature

Kim, Moonil; Lee, Woo‐Kyun; Choi, Go Mee; Song, Cholho; Lim, Chul-Hee; Moon, Jon Jungbien; Piao, Dongfan; Kraxner, Florian; Shividenko, Anatoly; Forsell, Nicklas

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2016.12.001

Cited by 25 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Climate has spatial patterns at any spatial scale. Although the estimation model might have a good statistical fit with a random pattern of residuals, residuals might exhibit spatial autocorrelation if climate influences tree growth [33]. In addition, residuals of tree estimate models might serve as indicators of altered environmental conditions [34].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an Integrated DBH Estimation Model Based on Stand and Climatic Conditions

Piao

Kim

Choi

et al. 2018

Forests

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Using Korean National Forest Inventory (NFI) data, our study developed a model to estimate stand mean diameter at breast height (DBH) reflecting the influence of site and climate factors on forest growth for the major tree species in South Korea. A DBH estimation model was developed using stand-level variables (stand age, site index and number of trees per hectare) as independent factors. The spatial autocorrelation of residuals of the model was identified using semi-variogram analysis for each tree species. Further, a residual model, in which residuals were estimated by climatic factors (mean temperature, sum temperature in the growing season and precipitation), was developed assuming that the spatial autocorrelation of residuals reflects the differences in regional climatic conditions. Linear regression analysis showed that residuals of all tree species were significantly correlated with temperature and precipitation. The DBH and residual models were integrated to estimate the current DBH under different climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and stand-level variables. This model had high reliability (R 2 = 0.74-0.79), and no obvious dependencies or patterns in residuals were noted. Our results indicated that temperature increases caused by climate change would negatively affect the DBH estimate of coniferous trees, but not of oak species.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of an Integrated DBH Estimation Model Based on Stand and Climatic Conditions

Piao

Kim

Choi

et al. 2018

Forests

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“…Larch is one of the most sensitive tree species to climate change (Levesque et al 2013;Lei et al 2016;Kim et al 2017). The distribution, growth, reproduction and regeneration of Dahurian larch, Siberian larch, and European larch have all suffered from increased drought and are all known to be rather drought sensitive (Sidorova et al 2009;Dulamsuren et al 2010;Chenlemuge et al 2013).…”

Section: Species-specific Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of climate change on the structure and function of forest ecosystems has been observed in many places, and this knowledge is continuously expanding to cover biodiversity, distribution, growth, productivity and mortality (Allen et al 2010;Lei et al 2016;Kim et al 2017). Forests have globally and regionally suffered from drought and heat events (Kozyr 2014;Anenkhonov et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Forests have globally and regionally suffered from drought and heat events (Kozyr 2014;Anenkhonov et al 2015). These include pine and oak species in Mediterranean regions (Ruiz et al, 2013), larch forests and pine forests of the lower forest belt in Southern Transbaikalia, Russia (Kozyr 2014), and coniferous forests in South Korea (Kim et al 2017). The common causal factors in these examples are elevated temperatures and/or water stress, raising the possibility that the world's forests are increasingly responding to ongoing warming and drying.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Larches (Larix spp.) are widely distributed in cool temperate and boreal regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Hiranoa et al 2017) and are some of the most sensitive tree species to climate change (Levesque et al 2013;Lei et al 2016;Kim et al 2017). About half of the carbon that has accumulated in Eurasian forest communities is contained in larch forests (Cai et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative studies of the response of larch and birch seedlings from two origins to water deficit

Run-mei

Shi

Wang

2017

N.Z. j. of For. Sci.

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Background: Early developmental stages of plants are expected to be a major bottleneck to recruitment. Information on the response of seedling to anticipated water availability is urgently needed in regions where tree seedlings may experience more frequent water deficits. In this paper, we focused on the influence of water deficit on different species (larch vs. birch) and origins (xeric vs. mesic). Methods: Prince Rupprecht's larch (Larix gmelinii var. principis-rupprechtii (Mayr) Pilg.) and white birch (Betula platyphylla Sukaczev) from northern China were selected to represent the xeric origin. Eastern larch (Larix laricina (Du Roi) K. Koch) and paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall) from eastern Canada were selected to represent the mesic origin. For each species, half of seedlings were assigned to a well-watered treatment (WW, 75% water holding capacity (WHC) and the other half to a low-watered treatment (LW, 35% WHC). After 20 weeks of treatment, we collected data on morphological indexes of shoot height, root collar diameter, total leaf area and total root area; measured photosynthetic rate (A sat ), transpiration rate (E), photosynthetic water-use efficiency (WUE) and apparent chlorophyll concentration (Chl); harvested seedlings and measured biomass allocation of leaf, stem and root. Results: We found that reduced photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate and increased water-use efficiency were physiological responses of the four species to drought, and the responses varied among the species. All larch seedlings appeared no leaf shedding, survived through the drought treatment and showed a longer duration and high tolerance to drought. In low-watered conditions, survival rate, biomass, shoot height, root collar diameter, total leaf area, total root area and chlorophyll concentration of birch seedlings were significantly decreased. The response of seedlings to water deficits also differed according to the seed origins. Xeric origin of Prince Rupprecht's larch was more affected than mesic origin of eastern larch, mainly because Prince Rupprecht's larch originated in a narrower range of mountainous regions, resulting in lower adaptation of this species to water deficits, whereas eastern larch was distributed widely along coastal regions, contributing to higher phenotypic plasticity to variable soil conditions. Similarly, higher plasticity of paper birch may be responsible for its better performance in the low-watered treatment than white birch. Conclusions: Larch seedlings were less sensitive to water deficit than birch seedlings. Larch seedlings were characteristics of a conservative water-use strategy, whereas birch seedlings responded with a profligate water-use strategy. Plasticity or adaptation of seedlings outweighs the seed origins in determining their drought responses.

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Enhancing the provisioning of ecosystem services in South Korea under climate change: The benefits and pitfalls of current forest management strategies

et al. 2021

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We present a study about the integrated impact of adaptive management and climate change using spatially-explicit tools at first time for assessing changes in forest ecosystem services in South Korea. The aims of this study were to: (i) project potential changes among forest ecosystem services under various scenarios, (ii) assess the impact of forest management [Sc1: controlled, Sc2: business as usual, and Sc3: adaptive management] and climate change through comparison among them, and (iii) find insight for strategies to implementing both sustainable society and environment. For this purpose, the integrated tool was applied to analyze the changes in five ecosystem services: forest carbon storage, carbon sequestration, industrial wood production, freshwater supply, and forest recreation. The simulated results show that the ratio of these five ecosystem services of Sc3-to-Sc2 in the 2040s was estimated as 88.4%, 114.7%, 105.4%, 228.2%, and 86.5%, respectively. These results showed clear trade-offs between industrial wood production and freshwater supply on one side and forest recreation and forest carbon storage on the other side. In the case of carbon sequestration, the harvest activity might provide a negative effect in the short term, but it with a longer-term perspective could be positive through reforestation activity. In addition, this study showed that future climate change until 2050 in Korea could have a generally negative influence on forest carbon sequestration but that these negative effects could be partly offset through harvest management.Therefore, the plans of the spatial distribution of management activities for the equilibrium of demand and supply in ecosystem services should be required.

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Modeling stand-level mortality based on maximum stem number and seasonal temperature

Cited by 25 publications

References 25 publications

Development of an Integrated DBH Estimation Model Based on Stand and Climatic Conditions

Development of an Integrated DBH Estimation Model Based on Stand and Climatic Conditions

Comparative studies of the response of larch and birch seedlings from two origins to water deficit

Enhancing the provisioning of ecosystem services in South Korea under climate change: The benefits and pitfalls of current forest management strategies

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