Modeling Spatio-Temporal Divergence in Land Vulnerability to Desertification with Local Regressions

Abstract

Taken as a classical issue in applied economics, the notion of ‘convergence’ is based on the concept of path dependence, i.e., from the previous trajectory undertaken by the system during its recent history. Going beyond social science, a ‘convergence’ perspective has been more recently adopted in environmental studies. Spatial convergence in non-linear processes, such as desertification risk, is a meaningful notion since desertification represents a (possibly unsustainable) development trajectory of socio-ecological systems towards land degradation on a regional or local scale. In this study, we test—in line with the classical convergence approach—long-term equilibrium conditions in the evolution of desertification processes in Italy, a European country with significant socioeconomic and environmental disparities. Assuming a path-dependent development of desertification risk in Italy, we provided a diachronic analysis of the Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI), estimated at a disaggregated spatial resolution at three times (1960s, 1990s, and 2010s) in the recent history of Italy, using a spatially explicit approach based on geographically weighted regressions (GWRs). The results of local regressions show a significant path dependence in the first time interval (1960–1990). A less significant evidence for path-dependence was observed for the second period (1990–2010); in both cases, the models’ goodness-of-fit (global adjusted R2) was satisfactory. A strong polarization along the latitudinal gradient characterized the first observation period: Southern Italian land experienced worse conditions (e.g., climate aridity, urbanization) and the level of land vulnerability in Northern Italy remained quite stable, alimenting the traditional divergence in desertification risk characteristic of the country. The empirical analysis delineated a more complex picture for the second period. Convergence (leading to stability, or even improvement, of desertification risk) in some areas of Southern Italy, and a more evident divergence (leading to worse environmental conditions because of urban sprawl and crop intensification) in some of the land of Northern Italy, were observed, leading to an undesired spatial homogenization toward higher vulnerability levels. Finally, this work suggests the importance of spatially explicit approaches providing relevant information to design more effective policy strategies. In the case of land vulnerability to degradation in Italy, local regression models oriented toward a ‘convergence’ perspective, may be adopted to uncover the genesis of desertification hotspots at both the regional and local scale.

Delineating the Intrinsic, Long-Term Path of Land Degradation: A Spatially Explicit Transition Matrix for Italy, 1960–2010

“…Quality indicators allow for a multidimensional and integrated assessment of land vulnerability, evaluating local contexts according to multifaceted criteria integrating environmental, social, and economic dimensions of sustainability (e.g., [9]). Based on this information, a trade-off between sustainability and resilience of local systems can be outlined, whose long-term development is altered by exogenous shocks that limit or modify their evolutionary path [95].…”

Comparison between Different Mechanization Systems: Economic Sustainability of Harvesting Poplar Plantations in Italy

“…It is used, generally, to produce biomass (wood chips for energy uses or as industrial material). This model provides a high level of density (5000-10,000 plants per hectare) and yield shifts every 2-3 years [21][22][23][24][25]. By applying longer shifts (5-7 years), the model is also referred to as medium rotation coppice (MRC) [20,26].…”

“…In recent years, the increasing use of alternative energy sources as opposed to fossil fuels and the consequent creation of power plants or small plants for the production of thermal energy has diversified the use of wood waste products. This is also in light of the main European policies and legislative acts enacted by the European Union itself, the European Green Deal and REPowerEU, which are also regarded as incentives for the use of renewable energy sources for greater environmental and energy sustainability [22,31]. The biomass produced by the chipping of short-rotation woody crops (SRWCs) is considered one of the most interesting options to generate renewable energy [47].…”

Remote sensing and spatial databases for investigating latent urban-rural dynamics in rural, inland districts of Southern Italy

“…In this context, especially for the second target, also Italy should promote a considerable effort since it must reverse a long-standing trend of continuous and significant growth in land consumption from the 1950s to today (about 180%, see e.g., Romano and Zullo, 2014;Bimonte and Stabile, 2017;Munafò, 2019;Bianchini et al, 2021) which currently places the nation in the list of European countries with the highest percentage of land consumption in relation to the surface area (Marchetti et al, 2017). In addition, a tendential contraction of agricultural areas has been recorded since the 1960s (Congedo et al, 2017) which testifies how the natural capital of Italy is progressively decreasing, with consequent negative impacts on the quality of environment and landscape (e.g., land degradation, see Salvati et al, 2012;Recanatesi et al, 2016;Imbrenda et al, 2022;Lanfredi et al, 2022;Rodrigo-Comino et al 2022;Nickayin et al, 2022) and in terms of socio-economic disparities (Salvati and Zitti, 2007;Salvati and Zitti, 2009). These impacts generally affect the urban-rural fringe in the world, which is among the most ecologically vulnerable areas due to its peculiarities of transition space (Goodarzi et al, 2019;Coluzzi et al, 2022;Zambon et al, 2017).…”