Modeling salinity drop in estuarine areas under extreme precipitation events within a context of climate change: Effect on bivalve mortality in Galician Rías Baixas

Multiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, Spain

“…In particular, although the hydrological cycle regimes in the Iberian Peninsula are conditioned by several atmospheric variability modes (deCastro et al, 2006), the timing and position of winter storms are highly dependent on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, whose negative mode favors that the western Iberian Peninsula can be subjected to continuous intense large-scale precipitation during winter months, the main cause of the floods developed in the major rivers of this area (Lavers et al, 2011;Trigo et al, 2004). In this sense, some studies analyzing the future evolution of precipitation over Spain have shown an increase in extreme precipitation events (Lorenzo and Alvarez, 2020;Des et al, 2021), which reinforces the need to analyze and understand how this increase will condition the flooding of rivers in vulnerable areas.…”

“…The capability of each of the more than 30 RCMs to represent precipitation over the area under the scope was tested by comparing RCM precipitation data and field data from pluviometers managed by MeteoGalicia for the common period 2008-2020. Although there are several valid approaches to validating CORDEX models (Perkins et al, 2007;Peres et al, 2020;Des et al, 2021) the present analysis is focused on testing both the entire distribution of precipitation data, the so-called Perkins test (Perkins et al, 2007) and also the extreme precipitation values (those above the 99th percentile (P 99 ) test). One of the main advantages of the Perkins test, based on probability density functions and developed on a daily scale, is that the good fit between the measured and simulated data proves the capability of the model to detect extreme values that can be unusual in the historical period but more common in the future due to the implications of climate change (Perkins et al, 2007).…”

“…In this sense, some studies have detected that greenhouse gas emissions in recent years have tracked most closely with those projected under RCP 8.5, so this emission scenario seems to be highly realistic and a useful tool to assess future climate risks (Schwalm et al, 2020). EURO-CORDEX models provide daily data with sufficient spatial resolution (0.11 • × 0.11 • ) to adequately address the hydrological procedures of the area of scope (Garijo and Mediero, 2018;Lorenzo and Alvarez, 2020;Des et al, 2021).…”

Assessment of Risks Associated with Extreme Climate Events in Small-Scale Bivalve Fisheries: Conceptual Maps for Decision-Making Based on a Review of Recent Studies

“…In 2013 and 2014, strong precipitation led to salinity falling below 15 during 35 and 38 days in autumn, 70 and 81 days in winter, and 35 and 28 days in spring, respectively [36]. In fact, the effects of climate change are expected to be more acute in shellfish beds located in the southernmost rias, the Galician Rías Baixas [37,38] (Figure 1). Although marine organisms are to some extent adapted to cyclic changes (e.g., daily, tidal, seasonal) [39], they may not be able to adapt to an increased frequency or intensity.…”

“…Hindcasting models were developed to predict changes in the distribution of intertidal species related to temperature [109,110]. A recent study developed hindcasting and forecasting models by coupling hydrological models (based on precipitation), hydrodynamics (river outflow and shellfish bed salinity), and finally, by including bivalve mortality based on lethal physiological thresholds of the species [38]. This could also be done by including sublethal effects.…”