Modeling Public Health Campaigns for Sexually Transmitted Infections via Optimal and Feedback Control

Camacho, Ariel; Saldaña, Fernando; Barradas, Ignacio; Jerez, Silvia

doi:10.1007/s11538-019-00642-9

Cited by 7 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The proof is standard for L 2 -type objective functionals and we omit it. Proofs of such statements can be found in (Camacho et al, 2019;Saldaña et al, 2019;Sepulveda-Salcedo et al, 2020). We now use Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to state the necessary criterion satisfied by an optimal control (Fleming and Rishel, 1975;Kamien and Schwartz, 2012).…”

Section: Optimal Vaccine Allocationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the context of STIs, the key allocation problem is to investigate how to effectively distribute a limited vaccine stockpile among individuals, females and males, to minimize the prevalence of the infection in a population (Bogaards et al, 2015;Heffernan et al, 2014;Saldaña et al, 2019). Strategic mathematical modeling has already been directed to study resource allocation problems using different approaches such as mixedinteger linear programming models (Saif and Elhedhli, 2016;Tavana et al, 2021), feedback control (Camacho et al, 2019), analytical insights from compartmental models (Bogaards et al, 2011;Duijzer et al, 2018;Heffernan et al, 2014;Gao et al, 2021;Vo et al, 2021), and optimal control (Estadilla et al, 2021;Malik et al, 2016;Saldaña et al, 2019). Here, we focus on optimizing time-dependent control interventions in an epidemiological model, using the optimal control theory (OCT) as a methodology for designing effective vaccination strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their main conclusion was that immunization programs can optimally administer the three vaccines simultaneously by administering the quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines at the maximum rates and the bivalent vaccine at moderate rates. (Camacho et al, 2019) used a compartmental pair model coupled with optimal and feedback control to explore different public health strategies for the control of trichomoniasis, gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HPV. (Saldaña et al, 2019) used optimal control theory to investigate the best combination of vaccination and screening to reduce the spread of HPV infection, as well as the cost of the intervention strategy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

Saldaña

Steindorf

Srivas

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) poses a challenge due to its large negative impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Besides simple prevention measures and available treatment efforts, prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for controlling some viral STIs and their associated diseases.Here, we investigate how prophylactic vaccines are best distributed to prevent and control STIs. We consider sex-specific differences in susceptibility to infection, as well as disease severity outcomes.Different vaccination strategies are compared assuming distinct budget constraints that mimic a scarce vaccine stockpile. Vaccination strategies are obtained as solutions to an optimal control problem subject to a two-sex Kermack-McKendrick-type model, where the control variables are the daily vaccination rates for females and males.One important aspect of our approach relies on conceptualizing a limited but specific vaccine stockpile via an isoperimetric constraint. We solve the optimal control problem via Pontryagin's Maximum Principle and obtain a numerical approximation for the solution using a modified version of the forward-backward sweep method that handles the isoperimetric budget constraint in our formulation. The results suggest that for a limited vaccine supply (\(20%-30%\) vaccination coverage), one-sex vaccination, prioritizing females, appears to be more beneficial than the inclusion of both sexes into the vaccination program. Whereas, if the vaccine supply is relatively large (enough to reach at least \(40%\) coverage), vaccinating both sexes, with a slightly higher rate for females, is optimal and provides an effective and faster approach to reducing the prevalence of the infection. MSC Classi cation: 92B05 , 49N90 , 34A34

show abstract

Section: Optimal Vaccine Allocationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

Saldaña

Steindorf

Srivas

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Modeling studies often consider epidemiological dynamics as an autonomous dynamical system and neglect time-dependent changes in epidemiological parameters Hadeler (2011). Nevertheless, parameters usually evolve during the outbreak due to the impact of health interventions and changes in risk perception Camacho et al (2019); Saldaña and Barradas (2019); Weitz et al (2020). Here, we adapt the sequential data assimilation approach proposed in Daza-Torres et al ( 2022) to obtain time-varying parameters.…”

Section: Bayesian Sequential Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe

Saldaña

Daza–Torres

Aguiar

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objective: To estimate the instantaneous reproduction numberRtand the epidemic growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreaks in the European region. Methods: We gathered daily laboratory-confirmed monkeypox cases in the most affected European countries from the beginning of the outbreak to September 23, 2022. A data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number is obtained using a novel filtering type Bayesian inference. A phenomenological growth model coupled with a Bayesian sequential approach to update forecasts over time is used to obtain time-dependent growth rates in several countries. Results: The instantaneous reproduction numberRtfor the laboratory-confirmed MPX cases in Spain, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Italy. At the early phase of the outbreak, our estimation forRt, which can be used as a proxy for the basic reproduction numberR0, was 2.32 (95% CI 1.81-3.05) for Spain, 2.91 (95% CI 2.33-3.52) for France, 1.84 (95% CI 1.55-2.31) for UK, 3.16 (95% CI 2.55-3.64) for Germany, 2.97 (95% CI 2.01-4.32) for the Netherlands, 1.18 (95% CI 0.98-1.33) for Portugal, 3.74 (95% CI 2.91-4.49) for Italy. Cumulative cases for these countries present subexponential rather than exponential growth dynamics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the current monkeypox outbreaks present limited transmission chains of human-to-human secondary infection so the possibility of a huge pandemic is very low. Confirmed monkeypox cases are decreasing significantly in the European region, the decline might be attributed to public health interventions and behavioral changes in the population due to increased risk perception. Nevertheless, further strategies toward elimination are essential to avoid the subsequent evolution of the monkeypox virus that can result in new outbreaks.

show abstract

“… 2021 ), feedback control (Camacho et al. 2019 ), analytical insights from compartmental models (Bogaards et al. 2011 ; Duijzer et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

et al. 2023

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The burden of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) poses a challenge due to its large negative impact on sexual and reproductive health worldwide. Besides simple prevention measures and available treatment efforts, prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for controlling some viral STIs and their associated diseases. Here, we investigate how prophylactic vaccines are best distributed to prevent and control STIs. We consider sex-specific differences in susceptibility to infection, as well as disease severity outcomes. Different vaccination strategies are compared assuming distinct budget constraints that mimic a scarce vaccine stockpile. Vaccination strategies are obtained as solutions to an optimal control problem subject to a two-sex Kermack–McKendrick-type model, where the control variables are the daily vaccination rates for females and males. One important aspect of our approach relies on conceptualizing a limited but specific vaccine stockpile via an isoperimetric constraint. We solve the optimal control problem via Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle and obtain a numerical approximation for the solution using a modified version of the forward–backward sweep method that handles the isoperimetric budget constraint in our formulation. The results suggest that for a limited vaccine supply ( – vaccination coverage), one-sex vaccination, prioritizing females, appears to be more beneficial than the inclusion of both sexes into the vaccination program. Whereas, if the vaccine supply is relatively large (enough to reach at least coverage), vaccinating both sexes, with a slightly higher rate for females, is optimal and provides an effective and faster approach to reducing the prevalence of the infection.

show abstract

Modeling Public Health Campaigns for Sexually Transmitted Infections via Optimal and Feedback Control

Cited by 7 publications

References 34 publications

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

Data-driven estimation of the instantaneous reproduction number and growth rates for the 2022 monkeypox outbreak in Europe

Optimal vaccine allocation for the control of sexually transmitted infections

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About