Modeling Propagation of COVID-19 in the UK

Abstract

COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. From the beginning, this disease has been the subject of various scientific studies. Due to the large amount of data related to the spread of COVID-19 and the high speed of changes, particularly in modeling and forecasting works, it is required to update the predictions and assess the goodness of performance or the accuracy of the models. In this regard, we aim at evaluating the performance of the model introduced by Jamshidi et al [1] to describe the first wave of infectious diseases. Since about the propagation of COVID-19 in the UK, until early July 2020, we had encountered the first wave of the disease, it is possible to examine the performance of the model to describe the trend of the disease up to early July. Therefore, in this letter, we want to evaluate the performance of the model in two periods: - The time studied by Jamshidi et al [2] (April 15 to May 30, 2020), and - A one-month period thereafter (May 31 to July 1).

Mortality Rate of Patients With COVID-19 Based on Underlying Health Conditions

“…1 Generally, COVID-19 is more severe in people aged >60 years or those with underlying diseases. 2,3 Research on COVID-19 has been conducted from various perspectives, such as infection cases, 4,5 clinical characteristics, [6][7][8] and preventive measures. 9 In addition, several studies have confirmed that COVID-19 is more severe in older people and those with underlying diseases, such as lung or heart disease, diabetes, and immunological diseases.…”