Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma

Abstract

Background The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. Purpose To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. Methods This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. Results In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. Conclusions The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy.

Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

“…Major point source emissions are calculated (plume rise buoyancy calculations according to Briggs, 1984Briggs, , 1985Turner, 1985 andSharf et al, 1993), followed by semiLagrangian advection of all transported pollutants (Smolarkiewicz and Pudykiewicz, 1992). Vertical diffusion is carried out using a fully implicit Laasonen approach (Richtmyer, 1994), with area source emissions and gaseous deposition incorporated as boundary conditions on the diffusion equation.…”

“…Makar et al, 2009) and ozone deposition (Engardt, 2008;Van Dingenen et al, 2009;Stella et al, 2011). The human-health impact of air pollution is one of the main drivers behind research in this field, with potentially substantial health effects resulting from climatechange-induced changes in air-quality (Sheffield et al, 2011;Chang et al, 2010;Tagaris et al, 2009Tagaris et al, , 2010Cheng et al, 2009;Jackson et al, 2010). Global financial losses due to reductions in crop yields resulting from ozone deposition are expected to reach between $1 billion to $17 billion, depending on the emissions scenario employed (Averny et al, 2011).…”

The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030

“…Sheffield et al (2011) relate asthma emergency department visits in the 2020s in the New York City metropolitan area to simulated ozone changes using the IPCC A2 emission scenario. Chang et al (2014) use a series of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models to estimate the change in ozone-related emergency department visits due to climate change in the Atlanta, GA, metropolitan area.…”

“…Climate and air quality modeling are each time and resource intensive, so simulations focus on a limited number of projected years, climate scenarios, and geographic locations (Chang, Zhou, and Fuentes, 2010;Sheffield et al, 2011;Chang, Hao, and Sarnat, 2014;Jackson et al, 2010). Sheffield et al (2011) relate asthma emergency department visits in the 2020s in the New York City metropolitan area to simulated ozone changes using the IPCC A2 emission scenario.…”

Global Climate Change and Children’s Health

“…Air quality can be reduced through temperatureassociated elevations in ground-level ozone concentration, 32 increased pollen counts and allergy season duration, 33,34 and wildfire smoke 35 ; all of these factors exacerbate respiratory disease and asthma in children. Climate influences the behavior, development, and mortality of a wide range of living organisms, 36,37 some of which have the potential to cause pediatric infection.…”