Modeling of Rapidly Changing Macroeconomic Processes Based on the Analysis of Jump and Generalized Functions

Abstract

In recent years, the economies of many countries around the world have been in a situation of intense, rapidly changing, abrupt processes. The current situation urgently requires a change in the economic paradigm in the near future, which leads to the need to develop new conceptual models. The purpose of the article is to develop basic theoretical principles and practical approaches to modeling macroeconomic processes based on the analysis of jump and generalized functions. The objectives of the study are the following: (1) describe the main types of impulse and jump functions using examples from economic theory and practice; (2) perform an analytical representation of impulse and jump functions; (3) select macroeconomic characteristics to analyze rapidly changing processes in the economy; and (4) create models and mechanisms for forecasting impulsive and abrupt changes in the macroeconomy. The approaches to the development of macroeconomic theory and its methods proposed in the article are not associated with the use of evolutionary continuous functions; for example, power functions, which is typical for many canonical macroeconomic models. These approaches do not include management decisions to achieve optimal values of given target functions, which is typical for recursive macroeconomic models of dynamic programming. This article is about formulating the main provisions of macroeconomic theory and its methods, which, with varying degrees of accuracy, could give a forecast about the upcoming possibility of sudden changes (impulse, shock, spasmodic, and others) in the macroeconomic situation. The research methodology is statistical analysis, special methods developed by the author for studying impulse, and jump processes. As a result of this study, the basic principles of modeling macroeconomic theory based on rapid impulse and abrupt changes were formulated, approaches to constructing the tools of this theory were outlined, and problems and tasks for further research were identified.