Modelado de cambios de cobertura y uso del suelo: escenarios prospectivos en el Estado de México. Estudio de caso Amanalco de Becerra

Abstract

T he aim of this study is to assess the dynamics and processes of change that have occurred in the municipality of Amanalco de Becerra, State of Mexico, through the construction of a spatially explanatory model of land use/cover changes (LUCC). The modeling process was carried out using DINAMICA EGO, a mapping tool. Land use/cover maps for the years 1989, 1997 and 2009, as well as various explanatory physical-geographical, environmental and land tenure proximity variables, were used as map inputs. The LUCC for 2020 were modelled under two scenarios: 1) the trend model, which assumes that the annual change rates for the period 1997-2009 remain unaltered, and 2) the agropastoral model, which assumes that annual deforestation rates increase because of the establishment and development of farming activities. The analysis of the absolute values of the forest category, for each year, shows a trend towards the loss of forest cover; by contrast, the annual rates of change in the forest category show a trend towards recovery-revegetation-reforestation processes, as a result of the implementation of government environmental programs. ResumenE l presente estudio tiene como propósito evaluar la dinámica y los procesos de transformación ocurridos en el municipio de Amanalco de Becerra, Estado de México, mediante la construcción de un modelo espacialmente explicativo de cambios de cobertura y uso del suelo (CCUS). El proceso de modelado se realizó con la herramienta DINAMICA EGO, utilizando como insumos cartográficos los mapas de uso de suelo y vegetación de los años 1989, 1997 y 2009, y algunas variables explicativas de proximidad, físico-geográficas, ambientales y de explotación de la tierra. Los CCUS se modelaron para el año 2020 bajo dos escenarios: tendencial y agropastoril. El escenario tendencial supone que las tasas anuales de cambio del periodo 1997-2009 se mantienen, mientras que el agropastoril presume que las tasas anuales de deforestación aumentan a causa de la apertura, establecimiento y desarrollo de actividades agropecuarias. El análisis de los valores absolutos de la categoría bosque, para cada año, muestra tendencia hacia la pérdida de la cobertura forestal; por lo contrario, las tasas anuales de cambio de esta misma cobertura tienden hacia procesos relacionados con la recuperación-revegetación-reforestación, producto de la implementación de programas ambientales gubernamentales. Palabras clave: DINÁMICA EGO, Tasas de cambio, modelo espacial.

Assessment of Land Use-Cover Changes and Successional Stages of Vegetation in the Natural Protected Area Altas Cumbres, Northeastern Mexico, Using Landsat Satellite Imagery

“…This reduction in native vegetal cover is not exclusive from our study region; it is rather a worldwide pattern [6] that has increased in recent years in NPAs and different areas from other countries [8, 9,62,63]. Although the causes of these changes were not assessed in this work, recent studies on LULCC [12,25,26] that include the evaluation of NPAs [27,28] and their surrounding areas [31] have shown that deforestation due to overexploitation, uncontrolled logging, agricultural activities, consumer demand, fires, pests, and urban growth, as well as natural phenomena arising from climate change, are some of the main factors that influence the loss of vegetation in Mexico [2]. In other areas, the increase in land cover changes has been caused by the rapid population growth, the multiplication of human settlements, and regional economic development [8- 10,64].…”

Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico

“…By using the WoE values of the variables used in the analysis of LULCC, the Dinamica-EGO model calculates the transition probability of each pixel to change. Thus, the pixels are assigned with a probability value for a given transition and probability maps are generated for the transitions of interest (Soares-Filho, Rodrigues & Costa, 2009; Soares-Filho et al., 2010; Mas & Flamenco, 2011).…”

Peer Review #2 of "Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico (v0.2)"

“…By using the WoE values of the variables used in the analysis of LULCC, the Dinamica-EGO model calculates the transition probability of each pixel to change. Thus, the pixels are assigned with a probability value for a given transition and probability maps are generated for the transitions of interest Mas and Flamenco, 2011).…”

“…The validation was carried out based on the FSI, as it was also performed in previous research (Ximenes et al, 2011). The result of this analysis, where the three aforementioned methods are combined, highlighted the variables driving the process of degradation/deforestation, as well as the manipulation based on the knowledge of the transition probabilities, being more suitable for the simulation of LULCC (Mas & Flamenco, 2011). The transition probability matrices revealed that the primary forest has a negative trend in its occupied area, suggestsing that degradation will continue over this land use, this area of primary forest changed to secondary forest.…”