Modeling of land use change under the recent climate projections of CMIP6: a case study of Indian river basin

Singh, Vikram Gaurav; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Behera, Dhiroj Kumar; Gašparović, Mateo

doi:10.1007/s11356-023-26960-z

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…The Terrset's LCM module was utilized to assess the performance of the model [71,72]. An evaluation was conducted to determine the agreement or disagreement components (Table 4), which were further classified into two categories: 0.02 (representing errors related to allocation/disagreement in grid cells) and 0.01 (representing errors related to quantity/disagreement in quantity).…”

Section: Knomentioning

confidence: 99%

A CA–Markov-Based Simulation and Prediction of LULC Changes over the Nyabarongo River Basin, Rwanda

Gasirabo,

Xi,

Hamad

et al. 2023

Land

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Over the past few decades, the growth of population and the development of the economy have had a significant impact on the way land is used and covered (LULC) in the Nile Nyabarongo River basin. However, there is limited knowledge about the patterns of land use and the mechanisms that drive changes in these patterns because of human activities. Therefore, it is crucial to examine how land use and cover are shifting in this area, identify the factors responsible for these changes, and forecast future patterns. This study sought (1) to evaluate the changes in LULC from 1990 to 2020 and (2) to predict future fluctuations until 2060. By analyzing the LULC data for the years 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study simulated the future LULC patterns of the area for the next 30 years using the LULC transition matrix and the Markov chain model. The study classified the LULC into five categories: forestland, grassland, cropland, settlement, and water. The results revealed that there will be significant changes in the LULC of the study area from 2030 to 2060. The forest area is projected to decrease by 801.7 km, 771.6 km, and 508.2 km, while the cropland area will expand by 6307.2 km, 6249.2 km, and 6420.6 km during this period. The grassland area will experience a small increase of 761.1 km, 802.4 km, and 859.1 km, and the settlement area will also grow by 355.2 km, 407.4 km, and 453.2 km. In contrast, the water area will decrease by 55.9 km, 50.5 km, and 40 km. The ongoing pattern of LULCC is expected to persist over the next three decades, with an increase in cropland area and grassland. This study’s findings can provide valuable insights for land use planners and water resource managers in developing fair land use and water resource management policies for the entire region, enabling them to make well-informed decisions.

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Section: Knomentioning

confidence: 99%

A CA–Markov-Based Simulation and Prediction of LULC Changes over the Nyabarongo River Basin, Rwanda

Gasirabo,

Xi,

Hamad

et al. 2023

Land

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“…The CMIP6 links shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) to representative concentration pathways (RCP) used in the CMIP5, generating a range of future climate scenarios, namely the SSP-RCP [14,15]. Notably, researchers have widely applied SSP-RCP scenarios in LULC simulation studies to explore the characteristics of LULC change [16][17][18][19]. In addition, several methodologies have been commonly used in LUCC simulations, including the Land Change Modeler, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model, the Meta-cellular Automata, the Future Land Use Simulation model, and the Patch Generation Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model [5,11,[20][21][22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Land Use Management Strategies through Morphological Spatial Patterns Using a Climate–Socioeconomic-Based Land Use Simulation Modeling Framework

Xie,

Fukamachi,

Wang

et al. 2023

Land

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Facing future complex climate changes and global economic fluctuations, land use and land cover (LULC) simulation is recognized as an important initiative to support government decision-making. In this study, a comprehensive LULC simulation modeling framework was proposed based on the PLUS and InVEST models. The Kinki metropolis in Japan was chosen as a case to simulate future LULC changes under four SSP–RCP (126, 245, 370, and 585) scenarios, and to calculate carbon storage (CS) from 2040 to 2100. The results show that cultivated land will decrease while forests will increase, except under scenario SSP585. The artificial surface will increase except under SSP370. The CS changes are significantly correlated with forest area changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the significance of analyzing and discussing future LULCs under wide-area planning. Spatial pattern, morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), and Pearson correlation analysis were used to explore the characteristics of the LULC types. The results reveal that the prefectures within the Kinki metropolitan area can be classified into three groups based on the spatial pattern indices change of the artificial surface. Most cultivated land is concentrated in important patches and corridors (area larger than 40,000 m2), accounting for over 90% of the total area, while the number is less than 25%. Forests will become more aggregated, and different MSPA classes will have varying impacts on CS changes. This study comprehensively analyzed and validated the feasibility of the simulation results from different LULC perspectives, comparing the similarities and differences in the development of prefectures. Additionally, this research provides a comprehensive framework for integrating simulated LULC types with policy discussions to better guide LULC planning and policy formulation in metropolitan Kinki.

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Assessment of Land Utilization Pattern and Their Relationship with Surface Temperature and Vegetation in Sikkim, India

Sekhar

Singh

et al. 2023

Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences

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Modeling of land use change under the recent climate projections of CMIP6: a case study of Indian river basin

Cited by 9 publications

References 72 publications

A CA–Markov-Based Simulation and Prediction of LULC Changes over the Nyabarongo River Basin, Rwanda

A CA–Markov-Based Simulation and Prediction of LULC Changes over the Nyabarongo River Basin, Rwanda

Exploring Land Use Management Strategies through Morphological Spatial Patterns Using a Climate–Socioeconomic-Based Land Use Simulation Modeling Framework

Assessment of Land Utilization Pattern and Their Relationship with Surface Temperature and Vegetation in Sikkim, India

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