Modeling of Future Electricity Generation and Emissions Assessment for Pakistan

Abstract

Electricity demand in Pakistan has consistently increased in the past two decades. However, this demand is so far partially met due to insufficient supply, inefficient power plants, high transmission and distribution system losses, lack of effective planning efforts and due coordination. The existing electricity generation also largely depends on the imported fossil fuels, which is a huge burden on the national economy alongside causing colossal loss to the environment. It is also evident from existing government plans that electricity generation from low-cost coal fuels in the near future will further increase the emissions. As such, in this study, following the government’s electricity demand forecast, four supply side scenarios for the study period (2013–2035) have been developed using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software tool. These scenarios are Reference scenario (REF) based on the government’s power expansion plans, and three alternative scenarios, which include, More Renewable (MRR), More Hydro (MRH), and More Hydro Nuclear (MRHN). Furthermore, the associated gaseous emissions (CO2, SO2, NOX, CH4, N2O) are projected under each of these scenarios. The results of this study reveal that the alternative scenarios are more environmentally friendly than the REF scenario where penetration of planned coal-based power generation plants would be the major sources of emissions. It is, therefore, recommended that the government, apart from implementing the existing plans, should consider harnessing the renewable energy sources as indispensable energy sources in the future energy mix for electricity generation to reduce the fossil-fuel import bill and to contain the emissions.

The Role of Renewables in a Low-Carbon Society: Evidence from a Multivariate Panel Data Analysis at the EU Level

“…The multiple regression analysis concluded that the model was valid and correctly specified and the renewables were significant indicators of low carbon levels in all 27 EU countries, since the values of the estimated coefficients of the regression model were significantly different than zero and most of the variation of CO 2 emissions in EU countries was explained by the model. The results of the paper confirm recent studies of renewable energy impact on low carbon levels [47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. In addition, the novelty of this study resides in the fresh outlook taken for a set of 27 EU countries for the period 2008-2017, in order to assess the interaction between renewables and CO 2 emissions.…”

Investigating the Dynamic Impact of CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth on Renewable Energy Production: Evidence from FMOLS and DOLS Tests

“…The increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), ozone, and nitrous oxide, are causing severe damage to the global environment. Among other greenhouse gases, CO 2 emissions are considered as the principal cause of global warming, thereby toppling the climate [1][2][3]. The CO 2 emissions due to excessive burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and gas, along with increased deforestation, have considerably contributed to climate change.…”

“…This situation has prompted the consideration and research on the measures to reduce CO 2 emissions. One of the key measures to reduce CO 2 emissions is to reduce fossil fuel consumption and maintain economic growth by meeting part of the energy needs by harnessing renewable energy sources [3]. In order to substantiate this measure, the literature has sufficiently maintained the establishment of relationships among renewable energy production, CO 2 emissions, and economic growth [5][6][7].…”

A Hybrid Arima and Discrete Wavelet Transform Model for Predicting the Electricity Consumption of Punjab

“…Hence, various prediction models developed in the literature to predict the electricity usage as per country wise. For instance, scholars attempted to predict the future electricity emission and its generation in Pakistan (Mengal et al, 2019). However, energy production in India is quite different as the growth of the energy sector and the installation of hydro and electricity plants reduces the load.…”