Modeling of coronal mass ejections that caused particularly large geomagnetic storms using ENLIL heliosphere cone model

Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Кузнецова, М.; Hesse, Michael; Odstrčil, D.

doi:10.1029/2010sw000642

Cited by 26 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…ENLIL has previously been verified against data recorded near‐Earth [ Falkenberg et al , 2010; Taktakishvili et al , 2009, 2011; Lee et al , 2009], and does quite well at predicting arrival times and major solar wind parameters near‐Earth. A detailed event study was also previously performed, by Falkenberg et al [2011], using the ENLILv2.6 model and verifying it against data from both Mars and Earth.…”

Section: Enlilv26mentioning

confidence: 89%

“…There are two main methods of finding input parameters for the CME disturbance fed into ENLIL, based on SOHO/LASCO images from the C3 coronograph. A manual method presented by Xie et al [2004], which was used, e.g., by Falkenberg et al [2010, 2011] and Taktakishvili et al [2009], and a newer, automated method described by Pulkkinen et al [2010], which was used by Falkenberg et al [2011] and Taktakishvili et al [2011]. These are described in more detail below.…”

Section: Methods Of Finding Input Parameters For Enlilv26mentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Pulkkinen et al [2010] compared the input parameters extracted using their technique to those of Xie et al [2004], finding good correspondence, and Taktakishvili et al [2011] compared the effects of the two different input parameter sets when using ENLIL, finding an average error of 6.9 h for the manual method and 11.2 h for the automated method. Falkenberg et al [2011] also compared the performance of the two different input parameter sets in combination with ENLILv2.6 for a study of one event that encountered both Earth and Mars.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating predictions of ICME arrival at Earth and Mars

Falkenberg¹,

Taktakishvili

Pulkkinen

et al. 2011

Space Weather

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[1] We present a study of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) propagation to Earth and Mars. Because of the significant space weather hazard posed by ICMEs, understanding and predicting their arrival and impact at Mars is important for current and future robotic and manned missions to the planet. We compare running ENLILv2.6 with coronal mass ejection (CME) input parameters from both a manual and an automated method. We analyze shock events identified at Mars in Mars Global Surveyor data in 2001 and 2003, when Earth and Mars were separated by <80°in heliocentric longitude. The shocks identified at Mars were also identified at Earth, and the majority of the shock sources were identified through the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory-Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph catalogue. We find that arrival times predicted by the two methods at both planets are statistically similar, dynamic pressures predicted when using the automated method are better, and the automated method tends to underestimate both CME width and speed. Using the location of the related flare as the CME direction did not improve results. In addition, changing the CME speed toward the plane-of-sky speed at 20 R S improves the match to observations, mainly because the speed found by the automated method is underestimated. The time lapse between the shock arrival at Earth and Mars, for the events studied here, is shorter than expected from simulations, and the presence of high speed streams can enable an ICME to arrive almost simultaneously at Earth and Mars. This work will be applied to improve the input parameter methods for ENLIL.

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Section: Enlilv26mentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Methods Of Finding Input Parameters For Enlilv26mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating predictions of ICME arrival at Earth and Mars

Falkenberg¹,

Taktakishvili

Pulkkinen

et al. 2011

Space Weather

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“…As large CME opening angles are associated with high energy flare events (Taktakishvili et al 2011), Proxima b would be frequently bombarded by these coronal ejections, which may greatly impact the survival and composition of any planetary atmosphere (e.g. Barnes & et al 2016).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Most Observations of Our Nearest Neighbor: Flares on Proxima Centauri

Davenport

Kipping

Sasselov

et al. 2016

ApJL

118

117

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We present a study of white light flares from the active M5.5 dwarf Proxima Centauri using the Canadian microsatellite MOST. Using 37.6 days of monitoring data from 2014 and 2015, we have detected 66 individual flare events, the largest number of white light flares observed to date on Proxima Cen. Flare energies in our sample range from 10 29 -10 31.5 erg,. The flare rate is lower than that of other classic flare stars of similar spectral type, such as UV Ceti, which may indicate Proxima Cen had a higher flare rate in its youth. Proxima Cen does have an unusually high flare rate given its slow rotation period, however. Extending the observed power-law occurrence distribution down to 10 28 erg, we show that flares with flux amplitudes of 0.5% occur 63 times per day, while superflares with energies of 10 33 erg occur ∼8 times per year. Small flares may therefore pose a great difficulty in searches for transits from the recently announced 1.27 M ⊕ Proxima b, while frequent large flares could have significant impact on the planetary atmosphere.

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“…gov/main/cmemodels). The coupled WSA + ENLIL + Cone suite [e.g., Odstrcil et al, 2004], as a physics-based global model, has been a top pick for forecasting the evolution of CMEs and their arrival at specific locations [Taktakishvili et al, 2009[Taktakishvili et al, , 2011Pizzo et al, 2011;Zheng et al, 2013]. In addition, this model also offers added benefits in providing a qualitative estimate where enhanced SEPs are expected during large SEP events [Zheng et al, 2013].…”

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confidence: 99%